With just under two months to go before the 2026 midterm elections, a new Gallup poll finds more voters who identify as independent say they lean Democratic than did a year ago, marking a sharp uptick during President Trump’s second term. At the same time, the number who said they lean Republican has declined by nearly the same percentage over the same period.
According to Gallup’s Quarterly Party Affiliation poll, 49% of independent voters surveyed in the second quarter of 2026 said they leaned toward the Democratic Party, up three points from the same period in 2025. The same poll found 39% of respondents said they leaned Republican, down from 43% a year ago.
In addition, the data show 31% of those polled identified as Democrats in the second quarter of 2026, compared to 25% who identified as Republicans.
As The New York Times noted, Democrats’ lead is close to where it was in 2020 when the party held the White House and both chambers of Congress. Democrats’ biggest leads in the quarterly poll came during the Obama years: In 2006 and 2008, some 52% of Americans polled by Gallup said they identified as Democrats or were Democratic-leaning.
With Trump’s approval rating near-record low of 33% amid the prospect of a prolonged war with Iran and a revival of the unpopular trade war with Canada, some Republicans have started to publicly fret about the party’s chances of holding on to the Senate in the midterms.
Of the 35 Senate seats up for reelection in 2026, The Caucus rates 13 as safe, expected, or advantage for the Democratic candidate, with 17 safe, expected or advantage for the Republican. The remaining five are toss-ups, and four of those are seats Republicans hold now: Alaska, Maine, Ohio's special, and Texas (the fifth is Sen. Gary Peters' open seat in Michigan).
(Photo: Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, via Congressman Hakeem Jeffries Facebook)