RACE

1 North Carolina

Candidate

Roy Cooper

MOVE

even

WHAT CHANGED

A pro-Whatley super PAC pulled $6.5 million in October reservations and Senate Leadership Fund trimmed its broadcast buy, though the NRSC denies it is pulling back

2 Alaska

Mary Peltola

↑1

Sen. Sullivan shares the ranked-choice ballot with another Dan Sullivan, and polling found about a third of likely primary voters could not tell the two apart

Troy Jackson

↓1

ProPublica reported a stalled FBI inquiry into whether Sen. Collins traded donations for contracts, and $3.3 million in new spending against her was filed in one day last week

4 Ohio

Sherrod Brown

even

Brown has out-raised Sen. Husted $38.6 million to $14.3 million, and Republican groups put $14 million into Ohio ads in a single week to hold the seat

5 Iowa

Josh Turek

↑1

Groups opposing Hinson filed $3.5 million in new spending on Sept. 24, though Republicans hold a registration edge of about 183,000 active voters

RACE

FL-22

NEW RATING

Toss Up

MOVE

↑D

WHAT CHANGED

Redistricting opened the seat and drew it for Trump by 11, but Democrat Pia Dandiya won her primary with 68.6% and has $1.3 million on hand against a nominee who took 30.9% of a 10-way field

TX-15

Toss Up

↑D

Democrat Bobby Pulido out-raised Rep. Monica De La Cruz in the second quarter and leads in recent polling, which is why Trump-aligned groups named the seat in a $150 million reservation

MT-01

R Advantage

↑D

Rep. Ryan Zinke’s retirement opened a seat he had been winning by growing margins, but Democrat Sam Forstag has out-raised Aaron Flint in a district Trump carried by 11