The Top 25 House Districts Democrats Are Most Likely to Flip: 8 Days Out
Democrats are at 217 before a single toss up race. The majority is 218.
Each week until Election Day, The Caucus ranks the 25 Republican-held House seats Democrats are most likely to win. Each list ranks the races as they look that week. The final edition runs next Monday.
Democrats need 218 seats for the majority. Counting only what we rate Safe D, Expected D or D Advantage, they are now at 217, four better than last week. There are still 19 toss ups on our board.
Arizona's 1st is up to 8th. Republican Rep. David Schweikert's retirement opened the seat, and Democrat Amish Shah won the nomination over the candidate House Democrats recruited. Republican Jay Feely was an NFL kicker and has not run for office before.
Arizona's 6th comes in at 10th. Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani has won it twice without ever clearing 51 percent. Democrat JoAnna Mendoza is his challenger.
Pennsylvania's 1st slips to 11th. Democrat Bob Harvie is where he was a week ago, it's just that three seats passed him on winning likelihood. Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick is a strong opponent so it's hard to believe this seat is out of reach for him.
Colorado's 8th was the biggest mover of the week at 12th. Republican Rep. Gabe Evans won it in 2024 by 2,449 votes out of 333,616 cast, and Democrat Manny Rutinel has been coming at him since.
North Carolina's 11th holds 25th. Republicans left this district untouched when they redrew the state last year, and the seat is now open. Democrat Jamie Ager, a fourth-generation farmer, is running against Republican Jennifer Balkcom.
Montana's 1st re-enters our rankings at 24th. Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke retired and handpicked Aaron Flint, a talk radio host and retired lieutenant colonel, to hold it. Democrat Sam Forstag is 32 and spent eight years as a Forest Service smokejumper. Both party committees are buying time in a district that was a fringe target for Democrats in the spring.
We're eight days out. Here is Week 7 of The Caucus Top 25:
| CAUCUS+ TOP 25 · WEEK 7 · 8 DAYS OUT | ||
1 | UT-01 Ben McAdams vs. Riley Owen · open, redistricted | Safe D |
2 | CA-01 Mike McGuire vs. James Gallagher · redistricted | Safe D |
3 | NJ-07 Rebecca Bennett vs. Tom Kean Jr. | Expected D |
4 | NE-02 Denise Powell vs. Brinker Harding · open | Expected D |
5 | CA-48 Marni von Wilpert vs. Jim Desmond · open, redistricted | Expected D |
6 | PA-07 Bob Brooks vs. Ryan Mackenzie | D Advantage |
7 | IA-01 Christina Bohannan vs. Mariannette Miller-Meeks | D Advantage |
8 ▲2 | AZ-01 Amish Shah vs. Jay Feely · open | D Advantage |
9 | IA-03 Sarah Trone Garriott vs. Zach Nunn | D Advantage |
10 ▲2 | AZ-06 JoAnna Mendoza vs. Juan Ciscomani | D Advantage |
11 ▼3 | PA-01 Bob Harvie vs. Brian Fitzpatrick | D Advantage |
12 ▲4 | CO-08 Manny Rutinel vs. Gabe Evans | D Advantage |
13 ▼2 | VA-02 Elaine Luria vs. Jen Kiggans | Toss up |
14 ▼1 | CA-22 Randy Villegas vs. David Valadao · redistricted | Toss up |
15 ▼1 | PA-10 Janelle Stelson vs. Scott Perry | Toss up |
16 ▲1 | NY-17 Cait Conley vs. Mike Lawler | Toss up |
17 ▲1 | WI-03 Rebecca Cooke vs. Derrick Van Orden | Toss up |
18 ▲1 | VA-01 Shannon Taylor vs. Rob Wittman | Toss up |
19 ▲1 | TX-15 Bobby Pulido vs. Monica De La Cruz | Toss up |
20 ▲1 | MI-10 Christina Hines vs. Michael Bouchard Jr. · open | Toss up |
21 ▲1 | MI-04 Sean McCann vs. Bill Huizenga | Toss up |
22 ▲1 | MI-07 William Lawrence vs. Tom Barrett | Toss up |
23 ▲1 | PA-08 Paige Cognetti vs. Rob Bresnahan | Toss up |
24 NEW | MT-01 Sam Forstag vs. Aaron Flint · open | Toss up |
25 | NC-11 Jamie Ager vs. Jennifer Balkcom · open | Toss up |
| ▲ toward a Democratic flip, ▼ away. Just missed: OH-07 and IA-02. | ||
A few more notes:
Seven of the 25 are open seats: Utah's 1st, Nebraska's 2nd, California's 48th, Arizona's 1st, Michigan's 10th, Montana's 1st and North Carolina's 11th.
Pennsylvania has four districts on the list, more than any other state. California and Michigan have three each.
Four were redrawn for this cycle: Utah's 1st, California's 1st, California's 48th and California's 22nd.
Ohio's 7th and Iowa's 2nd are the two seats closest to entering our rankings.
Democrats hold 214 seats. Two are vacant, one from each party, so a net gain of three gets them to 218.
Here is the full board, all 435 seats by rating:
| HOUSE RATINGS SUMMARY · DEMOCRATS NEED 218 | ||||
| CATEGORY | SEATS | D TOTAL | ||
| Safe D | 185 | 185 | ||
| Expected D | 21 | 206 | ||
| D Advantage | 11 | 217 | ||
| Toss up | 19 | |||
| R Advantage | 8 | |||
| Expected R | 14 | |||
| Safe R | 177 | |||
HELD NOW  214 Democratic 218 Republican 1 independent 2 vacant | ||||
| Both vacancies are holds, TX-23 for Republicans and FL-20 for Democrats, so Democrats count 215 toward 218. They reach 217 without the toss ups and 236 with all of them. | ||||
