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Where we see the race for Congress and the 2028 Democratic Presidential Primary. Go to Caucus+ for more.

SenateOctober 14, 2026

Ranking the 9 GOP-Held Senate Seats Democrats Are Most Likely to Flip: 3 Weeks Out

South Carolina joins the list, and both parties quit North Carolina in the same week

Rating ChangesOctober 13, 2026

Rating Changes: Week of October 12th

Nine races moved, including three Senate seats and a governor's race

HouseOctober 11, 2026

The Top 25 House Districts Democrats Are Most Likely to Flip: 3 Weeks Out

VA-01 jumps into the toss ups as all five of our ratings changes go one way

SenateOctober 6, 2026

Ranking the 8 GOP-Held Senate Seats Democrats Are Most Likely to Flip: Week 4

Kansas moves up, and Republicans pull $18 million out of North Carolina to pay for it

Rating ChangesOctober 6, 2026

Rating Changes: Week of October 5th

We moved 3 formerly Safe Republican seats toward the Democrats

HouseOctober 5, 2026

The Top 25 House Districts Democrats Are Most Likely to Flip: Week 4

IA-01 was our biggest mover of the week after we changed its rating to D Advantage

SenateSeptember 30, 2026

Ranking the 8 GOP-Held Senate Seats Democrats Are Most Likely to Flip: Week 3

Texas moves up, and we start tracking the seats Democrats are defending

Rating ChangesSeptember 29, 2026

Rating Changes: Week of September 28th

Six of our seven moves went toward Democrats

HouseSeptember 28, 2026

The Top 25 House Districts Democrats Are Most Likely to Flip: Week 3

Five weeks out, the committees are starting to spend on offense

SenateSeptember 23, 2026

Ranking the 8 GOP-Held Senate Seats Democrats Are Most Likely to Flip: Week 2

Alaska and Iowa move up

Rating ChangesSeptember 22, 2026

Rating Changes: Week of September 21st

We moved eight races this week

HouseSeptember 21, 2026

The Top 25 House Districts Democrats Are Most Likely to Flip: Week 2

Six weeks out, MI-04 and NJ-07 make the biggest jumps

SenateSeptember 16, 2026

Ranking 8 GOP-Held Senate Seats Democrats Are Most Likely to Flip

Five of the eight are pure toss-ups

Rating ChangesSeptember 15, 2026

Rating Changes: Week of September 14th

We moved seven races this week

HouseSeptember 14, 2026

The Top 25 House Districts Democrats Are Most Likely to Flip

We'll update our rankings every week ahead of the November election

SenateSeptember 9, 2026

The Nine Closest Senate Races 50+ Days Out From the Election

There are two additional states we see as potentially competitive if the environment changes

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