The Top 25 House Districts Democrats Are Most Likely to Flip: Week 3

Each week until Election Day, The Caucus ranks the 25 Republican-held House seats Democrats are most likely to win. Each list reflects where the races stand that week rather than how we think they will end. The final edition runs the Monday before the election.

Where the committees put money this week is worth more than any single poll. The DCCC’s Week 6 buy came to nearly $8 million and went more to offense than defense for the first time this cycle. The Democrats’ House Majority PAC pulled about $1 million out of MI-08, a seat the party is defending, and booked $2.45 million of New York cable against GOP Reps. Tom Kean Jr. (NJ-07) and Mike Lawler (NY-17). The GOP’s Congressional Leadership Fund put $4.9 million behind Max Miller in OH-07, a district where neither side had spent anything until now.

NJ-07 moved up to 3rd for a different reason. The state firefighters union backed Kean in 2020 and again in 2024, and this month it went with Rebecca Bennett instead. It’s just one endorsement, but it’s a sign of where the cycle is going.

MI-07 fell six spots, the steepest drop on the board. Lansing station filings show Democrat William Lawrence’s campaign booked through Sept. 28 and Tom Barrett booked through Election Day. Barrett had raised $6.3 million to Lawrence’s $1.2 million as of mid-July. Both Pennsylvania toss-ups climbed after Franklin & Marshall gave Bob Brooks a 45-40 lead in PA-07 and Janelle Stelson 47-44 in PA-10.

TX-15 returns at 21st after we moved the race to a Toss Up. Trump-aligned groups named the seat in a $150 million reservation last week, which tells you how hard Republicans plan to hold it. NC-11 enters at 25th with a replacement nominee on the Republican side. Rep. Chuck Edwards left the race in August after the Ethics Committee recommended censuring him, and state Rep. Jennifer Balkcom took his place.

We’re five weeks out. Here is Week 3 of The Caucus Top 25, with how much each seat moved since last week:

Democrats hold 214 seats. Two are vacant, one from each party, so neither changes the math. Democrats need a net gain of three to reach 218.

According to The Caucus ratings, there are 21 toss-ups, 12 seats where Democrats have an advantage, 12 where we expect the Democratic candidate to win, and 185 safe Democratic seats. We rate 10 races as currently having a GOP advantage, 15 expected Republican districts and 180 safe ones.

(Photo: Bobby Pulido, via Bobby Pulido for Texas Facebook)