The Top 25 House Districts Democrats Are Most Likely to Flip: 3 Weeks Out

Each week until Election Day, The Caucus ranks the 25 Republican-held House seats Democrats are most likely to win. Each list reflects where the races stand that week rather than how we think they will end. The final edition will run the Monday before the election.

We changed ratings for five races this week, and all of them went in the same direction. Three are Republican-held seats on this list. The other two are Democratic-held seats that got safer.

VA-01 is the one that shakes up the rankings. Shannon Taylor moves from R Advantage to a toss up, and up a spot to 23rd. She has raised $2.14 million to GOP Rep. Rob Wittman's $4.05 million, and outside groups have put $4.66 million into a district Trump carried by five.

NE-02 takes 3rd after we upgraded the race to Expected D. Republicans canceled more than $1.1 million of television there this week. Democrat Denise Powell has raised $2.67 million to Republican Brinker Harding's $2.03 million for an open seat that went to Kamala Harris by five points. Outside groups have spent $7.27 million there since April, but almost none of it aired in the last seven days.

CA-48 moves to Expected D at 4th, where Democrats gained enough confidence to cancel a little over $200,000 in spending. Outside groups have spent $2.39 million supporting Democrat Marni von Wilpert and $743,000 attacking her.

NJ-07 and PA-07 each slip two spots because two races jumped over them. Republicans moved money into NJ-07 this week, pulling it out of New York's 3rd. Democrat Rebecca Bennett has $5.12 million spent against her and $1.94 million behind her, and Rep. Tom Kean has barely out-raised her $4.89 million to $4.27 million in a district Trump won by a point.

Democrat Rebecca Cooke in WI-03 holds 17th. She has raised $8.60 million, more than any other Democrat on this list, and Rep. Derrick Van Orden has raised $7.53 million.

Third-quarter reports are due to the FEC on Thursday, and every fundraising figure these campaigns have put out so far came from the campaigns. Next week's list will likely be adjusted based on those filings.

We're three weeks out. Here is Week 5 of The Caucus Top 25, with how much each seat moved since last week:

Democrats hold 214 seats. Two seats are vacant, one from each party, so Democrats need a net gain of three to reach 218.

According to The Caucus ratings, there are 21 toss-ups, 11 seats where Democrats have an advantage, 15 where we expect the Democratic candidate to win, and 185 safe Democratic seats. We rate 9 races as currently having a GOP advantage, 17 expected Republican districts and 177 safe ones.

(Photo credit Shannon Taylor, via Shannon Taylor for VA Facebook)