Republicans went into this cycle expecting to hold the Senate comfortably. They have a 53-47 majority and Democrats are defending most of the competitive seats, including Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire. The map was supposed to settle the question early.
It hasn't. Democrats need to net four seats, and eight Republican-held races are currently competitive enough to put that within reach. Three of the eight have no Republican incumbent defending them, either because the senator is retiring or because they lost in a primary.
Here’s our updated rankings of the eight most winnable GOP-held senate seats:
North Carolina is the only one we rate D Advantage. Roy Cooper led Michael Whatley 50-43 in July polling. Sen. Thom Tillis is retiring rather than seeking a third term.
Maine comes down to Susan Collins being the only Republican senator representing a state Kamala Harris carried. Democrats are on their second nominee after Troy Jackson replaced Graham Platner at a July convention.
Alaska puts Dan Sullivan against Mary Peltola, who won the state’s at-large House seat in 2022, so she’s been on every Alaskan’s ballot before. She has out-raised the incumbent $18.5 million to $11.7 million, but outside groups have spent more than twice as much attacking her as they have him.
Ohio gives Democrats their strongest candidate in Sherrod Brown, who won three Senate terms before losing by four points in 2024 in a state Trump carried by more than 10. Sen. Jon Husted was appointed to this seat and has never been elected to it.
Texas is on the board because of both candidates. Ken Paxton beat Sen. John Cornyn by 28 points in May and Republicans have spent the summer worrying about his numbers, while James Talarico is a state legislator and former teacher who has built a following well beyond Texas.
Iowa is an open seat with Sen. Joni Ernst retiring. Josh Turek is a state representative and a two-time Paralympic gold medalist running against Ashley Hinson, who gave up a competitive U.S. House seat to try and earn a promotion.
Florida is the other special election, for the seat Marco Rubio left to become Secretary of State. State Rep. Angie Nixon beat Alex Vindman in an upset in the August primary, and the race has drawn national attention since her win.
Kansas needs the most to change before it is genuinely in play. Adam Hamilton emerged from an 11-candidate primary in August to take on Sen. Roger Marshall.
And this is how The Caucus sees the whole Senate map:
