The Top 25 House Districts Democrats Are Most Likely to Flip: 2 Weeks Out
Max Miller is down to $122,835 as the fundraising numbers of the fall reshuffle the list
Each week until Election Day, The Caucus ranks the 25 Republican-held House seats Democrats are most likely to win. Each list reflects where the races stand that week rather than how we think they will end. The final edition will run the Monday before the election.
Third-quarter reports hit the FEC on Thursday, so for the first time this fall the money below is filed rather than announced.
In all fifteen toss-up districts on this list, the Democrat raised more than the Republican between July and September. Eleven of them by better than two to one. Cait Conley brought in $5.37 million in New York's 17th. Manny Rutinel took $4.24 million in Colorado's 8th.
Max Miller has $122,835 in the bank and owes $1,965,000, all of it to himself. Donors gave the Ohio Republican $145,525 over the summer. He lent his own campaign another $1 million and spent $2.39 million across the quarter. Brian Poindexter closed September with $1,066,833. House Majority PAC had put nothing into the district through the end of the quarter, then spent $1.6 million, then $1.78 million. The Congressional Leadership Fund is holding near $1.1 million a week. Ohio's 7th moves up seven spots to 15th.
Conley's quarter was the largest on this list and she has $1.17 million of it left. Mike Lawler raised about a third as much and finished with $2.85 million. Republican outside groups have outspent Democratic ones in the district by better than four to one, three weeks running. New York's 17th drops nine spots to 17th.
Virginia's 1st climbs four. Shannon Taylor beat Rob Wittman by $889,025 over the summer, and Democratic outside money there went from $270,000 to $1.28 million inside a week. Wittman has $2.19 million on hand to her $890,000.
In New Jersey's 7th, Rebecca Bennett out-raised Tom Kean four to one, $3.92 million to $974,612. Republicans put $2.1 million behind him during the second week of October and have bought nothing for him since. The seat moves up two, to 3rd.
Iowa's 3rd sits 9th. Sarah Trone Garriott has $1.98 million on hand against Zach Nunn's $1.42 million, and her summer quarter more than doubled his.
Rebecca Cooke has raised more than any other Democrat here and is down to $901,408. Derrick Van Orden has $2.12 million. House Majority PAC put $1.86 million into Wisconsin's 3rd last week.
Michigan's 10th, 4th and 7th and Pennsylvania's 8th each slip a few spots because races below them jumped over. Their own reports held steady. Kentucky's 6th comes off the list.
We're two weeks out. Here is Week 6 of The Caucus Top 25, with how much each seat moved since last week.
| CAUCUS+ TOP 25 · WEEK 6 · 2 WEEKS OUT | ||
1 | UT-01 Ben McAdams vs. Riley Owen · open, redistricted | Safe D |
2 | CA-01 Mike McGuire vs. James Gallagher · redistricted | Safe D |
3 ▲2 | NJ-07 Rebecca Bennett vs. Tom Kean Jr. | Expected D |
4 ▼1 | NE-02 Denise Powell vs. Brinker Harding · open | Expected D |
5 ▼1 | CA-48 Marni von Wilpert vs. Jim Desmond · open, redistricted | Expected D |
6 | PA-07 Bob Brooks vs. Ryan Mackenzie | D Advantage |
7 | IA-01 Christina Bohannan vs. Mariannette Miller-Meeks | D Advantage |
8 | PA-01 Bob Harvie vs. Brian Fitzpatrick | D Advantage |
9 ▲6 | IA-03 Sarah Trone Garriott vs. Zach Nunn | D Advantage |
10 ▼1 | AZ-01 Amish Shah vs. Jay Feely · open | Toss up |
11 ▼1 | VA-02 Elaine Luria vs. Jen Kiggans | Toss up |
12 ▼1 | AZ-06 JoAnna Mendoza vs. Juan Ciscomani | Toss up |
13 ▼1 | CA-22 Randy Villegas vs. David Valadao · redistricted | Toss up |
14 | PA-10 Janelle Stelson vs. Scott Perry | Toss up |
15 ▲7 | OH-07 Brian Poindexter vs. Max Miller | Toss up |
16 ▼3 | CO-08 Manny Rutinel vs. Gabe Evans | Toss up |
17 ▼9 | NY-17 Cait Conley vs. Mike Lawler | Toss up |
18 ▼1 | WI-03 Rebecca Cooke vs. Derrick Van Orden | Toss up |
19 ▲4 | VA-01 Shannon Taylor vs. Rob Wittman | Toss up |
20 | TX-15 Bobby Pulido vs. Monica De La Cruz | Toss up |
21 ▼5 | MI-10 Christina Hines vs. Michael Bouchard Jr. · open | Toss up |
22 ▼4 | MI-04 Sean McCann vs. Bill Huizenga | Toss up |
23 ▼4 | MI-07 William Lawrence vs. Tom Barrett | Toss up |
24 ▼3 | PA-08 Paige Cognetti vs. Rob Bresnahan | Toss up |
25 | NC-11 Jamie Ager vs. Jennifer Balkcom · open | R Advantage |
| ▲ toward a Democratic flip, ▼ away. | ||
Democrats hold 214 seats. Two seats are vacant, one from each party, so Democrats need a net gain of three to reach 218.
According to The Caucus ratings, there are 21 toss-ups, 7 seats where Democrats have an advantage, 21 where we expect the Democratic candidate to win, and 185 safe Democratic seats. We rate 10 races as currently having a GOP advantage, 14 expected Republican districts and 177 safe ones.
| HOUSE RATINGS SUMMARY · DEMOCRATS NEED 218 | ||||
| CATEGORY | SEATS | D TOTAL | ||
| Safe D | 185 | 185 | ||
| Expected D | 21 | 206 | ||
| D Advantage | 7 | 213 | ||
| Toss up | 21 | |||
| R Advantage | 10 | |||
| Expected R | 14 | |||
| Safe R | 177 | |||
HELD NOW  214 Democratic 218 Republican 1 independent 2 vacant | ||||
| Both vacancies are holds, TX-23 for Republicans and FL-20 for Democrats, so Democrats count 215 toward 218. They reach 213 without the toss ups and 234 with all of them. | ||||
