Each week, The Caucus reviews every race on our board to make sure the rating still matches where we see the contest. We moved seven races this time, every one of them toward Democrats. Most are open seats Republicans are finding harder to hold than they planned.
Here’s what changed:
Iowa’s Senate race is now a toss-up, with state Rep. Josh Turek and U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson running neck and neck in the polling average for Joni Ernst’s open seat.
New Jersey’s 7th moves out of the toss-up column to D Advantage, our first rating of the cycle that favors Rebecca Bennett over Rep. Thomas Kean Jr.
Texas’s 35th moves to R Advantage. This is a gerrymandered seat Republicans drew to be winnable, but Democrat Johnny Garcia is running as a Blue Dog in a majority-Hispanic district that has been quickly moving back toward Democrats.
Kentucky’s 6th goes from Expected R to R Advantage. Zach Dembo dominated his primary, which tells us he can run a campaign, and his old boss Andy Beshear carried this district by 20 points and is out stumping for him.
Nevada’s 2nd goes from Safe R to Expected R, still a reach in a seat no Democrat has ever won, but Trump backed David Flippo over the candidate retiring Rep. Mark Amodei wanted, and Amodei said afterward the district is no longer a guaranteed Republican hold.
Texas’s governor race moves to R Advantage, with state Rep. Gina Hinojosa trying to become the first Democrat to win the office since Ann Richards in 1990.
Florida’s governor race also moves to R Advantage, as Democrat David Jolly and running mate Gwen Graham look to be gaining ground on Rep. Byron Donalds.