The House Districts Democrats Are Most Likely to Flip: Final Rankings
Our final rankings show all of the most-likely opportunities, expanded to every Republican-held seat we rate competitive
Each week leading up to the election, The Caucus has ranked the Republican-held House seats Democrats are most likely to win. This is the last edition. We have expanded the list past 25 to cover every Republican-held seat we rate competitive, which is 34 of them.
Democrats need 218. Counting only Safe D, Expected D and D Advantage, they are at 221, up four from last week. That clears the majority by three before a single toss up goes either way. Add all 15 toss ups and the number becomes 236.
Nine seats are one notch further out at R Advantage. Two of the nine belong to Democrats today, Maine's 2nd and Texas's 35th. Fourteen more carry an Expected R rating.
A few notes before the list:
Six of the top 25 are open seats: Utah's 1st, California's 48th, Nebraska's 2nd, Arizona's 1st, Montana's 1st and North Carolina's 11th. Ten of the 34 have no incumbent.
Pennsylvania put four districts in the top 25, more than any other state. California has three.
Six were redrawn this cycle: Utah's 1st, California's 1st, California's 48th, California's 22nd, Texas's 15th and Ohio's 7th.
Kamala Harris carried only six of the top 25 last year.
Texas's 15th is the furthest reach we kept in the toss up column. Trump took it by 17.9 points.
Two seats below improved for Democrats this week: South Carolina's 1st went from Expected R to R Advantage, and Indiana's 5th from Safe R to Expected R.
Here is our final rankings of the GOP-held seats Democrats have the best chance to flip:
| CAUCUS+ TOP 25+ · WEEK 8 · FINAL RATINGS | ||
1 | UT-01 Ben McAdams vs. Riley Owen · open, redistricted | Safe D |
2 | CA-01 Mike McGuire vs. James Gallagher · redistricted | Safe D |
3 | NJ-07 Rebecca Bennett vs. Tom Kean Jr. | Expected D |
4 ▲1 | CA-48 Marni von Wilpert vs. Jim Desmond · open, redistricted | Expected D |
5 ▼1 | NE-02 Denise Powell vs. Brinker Harding · open | Expected D |
6 ▲1 | IA-01 Christina Bohannan vs. Mariannette Miller-Meeks | D Advantage |
7 ▼1 | PA-07 Bob Brooks vs. Ryan Mackenzie | D Advantage |
8 | AZ-01 Amish Shah vs. Jay Feely · open | D Advantage |
9 | IA-03 Sarah Trone Garriott vs. Zach Nunn | D Advantage |
10 | AZ-06 JoAnna Mendoza vs. Juan Ciscomani | D Advantage |
11 ▲1 | CO-08 Manny Rutinel vs. Gabe Evans | D Advantage |
12 ▼1 | PA-01 Bob Harvie vs. Brian Fitzpatrick | D Advantage |
13 ▲2 | PA-10 Janelle Stelson vs. Scott Perry | D Advantage |
14 ▲3 | WI-03 Rebecca Cooke vs. Derrick Van Orden | D Advantage |
15 ▲8 | PA-08 Paige Cognetti vs. Rob Bresnahan | D Advantage |
16 ▼3 | VA-02 Elaine Luria vs. Jen Kiggans | Toss up |
17 ▼3 | CA-22 Randy Villegas vs. David Valadao · redistricted | Toss up |
18 ▼2 | NY-17 Cait Conley vs. Mike Lawler | Toss up |
19 ▼1 | VA-01 Shannon Taylor vs. Rob Wittman | Toss up |
20 ▼1 | TX-15 Bobby Pulido vs. Monica De La Cruz · redistricted | Toss up |
21 | MI-04 Sean McCann vs. Bill Huizenga | Toss up |
22 | MI-07 William Lawrence vs. Tom Barrett | Toss up |
23 ▲1 | MT-01 Sam Forstag vs. Aaron Flint · open | Toss up |
24 ▲1 | NC-11 Jamie Ager vs. Jennifer Balkcom · open | Toss up |
25 ▲1 | OH-07 Brian Poindexter vs. Max Miller · redistricted | Toss up |
26 ▼6 | MI-10 Christina Hines vs. Michael Bouchard Jr. · open | Toss up |
27 | IA-02 Lindsay James vs. Joe Mitchell · open | Toss up |
28 | CO-05 Jessica Killin vs. Jeff Crank | R Advantage |
29 | KY-06 Zach Dembo vs. Ralph Alvarado · open | R Advantage |
30 | FL-27 Eliott Rodriguez vs. Maria Elvira Salazar · redistricted | R Advantage |
31 | OH-10 Kristina Knickerbocker vs. Mike Turner · redistricted | R Advantage |
32 | OH-15 Don Leonard vs. Mike Carey · redistricted | R Advantage |
33 | SC-01 Nancy Lacore vs. Jenny Costa Honeycutt · open | R Advantage |
34 | AK at large Eric Hafner vs. Nicholas Begich | R Advantage |
| ▲ toward a Democratic flip, ▼ away. The chart runs past 25 this week to carry every seat we rate as competitive and currently Republican held, so ranks 26 and below are new to it and carry no arrow. | ||
Seven seats moved more than one spot:
Pennsylvania's 8th jumped eight places to 15th on an upgrade out of the toss up column, the biggest move anywhere on the list, where Democrat Paige Cognetti faces Republican Rep. Rob Bresnahan.
Wisconsin's 3rd climbed three to 14th, putting Democrat Rebecca Cooke back opposite Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden, who beat her by 2.7 points in 2024.
Pennsylvania's 10th rose two to 13th, a rematch between Democrat Janelle Stelson and Republican Rep. Scott Perry, who held her off by 1.2 points last cycle.
Virginia's 2nd slid three to 16th not because of anything Democrat Elaine Luria did, it was based on movement in other races (she’s facing Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans).
California's 22nd gave up three places to 17th, where Democrat Randy Villegas meets Republican Rep. David Valadao in a district Trump won by 1.9 points. Again, this had more to do with Democrats’ progress elsewhere than Villegas’s chances.
New York's 17th dropped two to 18th, the state's only entry here, with Democrat Cait Conley challenging Republican Rep. Mike Lawler.
Michigan's 10th lost more ground than any other seat and now sits 26th, leaving Democrat Christina Hines in a district Republican John James vacated to run for governor.
Democrats hold 214 seats today. Two are vacant, one from each party, so a net gain of three puts them at 218.
Here is the full board, all 435 seats by rating:
| HOUSE RATINGS SUMMARY · DEMOCRATS NEED 218 | ||||
| CATEGORY | SEATS | D TOTAL | ||
| Safe D | 185 | 185 | ||
| Expected D | 21 | 206 | ||
| D Advantage | 15 | 221 | ||
| Toss up | 15 | |||
| R Advantage | 9 | |||
| Expected R | 14 | |||
| Safe R | 176 | |||
HELD NOW  214 Democratic 218 Republican 1 independent 2 vacant | ||||
| Both vacancies are holds, TX-23 for Republicans and FL-20 for Democrats, so Democrats count 215 toward 218. They reach 221 without the toss ups and 236 with all of them. | ||||
One tier below R Advantage are the Expected R seats. Twelve belong to Republicans, and reaching any of them takes a night well past what either party is planning for. The other two, Alabama's 2nd and Florida's 9th, are Democratic seats that redistricting turned against them.
The twelve:
Arizona's 2nd: Jonathan Nez against Republican Rep. Eli Crane
Arkansas's 2nd: Chris Jones against Republican Rep. French Hill
Colorado's 3rd: Dwayne Romero against Republican Rep. Jeff Hurd
Florida's 7th: Bale Dalton against Ryan Elijah, open
Florida's 13th: Leela Gray against Republican Rep. Anna Paulina Luna
Indiana's 5th: J.D. Ford against Republican Rep. Victoria Spartz
Minnesota's 1st: Jake Johnson against Republican Rep. Brad Finstad
Missouri's 2nd: Fred Wellman against Republican Rep. Ann Wagner
Nevada's 2nd: Teresa Benitez-Thompson against David Flippo, open
Pennsylvania's 16th: Justin Wagner against Republican Rep. Mike Kelly
Texas's 23rd: Katy Padilla Stout against Brandon Herrera, open
Wisconsin's 1st: Mitchell Berman against Republican Rep. Bryan Steil
