Each week until Election Day, The Caucus is ranking the eight Republican-held Senate seats Democrats are most likely to flip. Republicans hold 53 seats, so Democrats need to net four to take the majority.
Four races moved one spot each this week, and none of our Senate ratings changed. Alaska passed Maine and Iowa passed Texas over the past week based off on-the-ground factors and consistent polling trends.
Here’s Week 2 of our Senate rankings, six weeks out:
| CAUCUS+ SENATE TOP 8 · WEEK 2 · 6 WEEKS OUT | ||
1 | North Carolina Roy Cooper vs. Michael Whatley · open | D Advantage |
2 ▲1 | Alaska Mary Peltola vs. Dan Sullivan | Toss up |
3 ▼1 | Maine Troy Jackson vs. Susan Collins | Toss up |
4 | Ohio Sherrod Brown vs. Jon Husted · special | Toss up |
5 ▲1 | Iowa Josh Turek vs. Ashley Hinson · open | Toss up |
6 ▼1 | Texas James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton · open | Toss up |
7 | Florida Angie Nixon vs. Ashley Moody · special | Expected R |
8 | Kansas Adam Hamilton vs. Roger Marshall | Expected R |
| ▲ toward a Democratic flip, ▼ away. | ||
North Carolina is still the only one we rate D Advantage. Roy Cooper led Michael Whatley 50-43 in July polling, and Sen. Thom Tillis is retiring rather than seeking a third term.
Alaska moves up a spot. Mary Peltola leads Sen. Dan Sullivan consistently in recent polling, and Sullivan also has to share the ballot with two other Republicans (one of them a second Dan Sullivan).
Maine slips a spot only because Alaska moved past it. Troy Jackson and Susan Collins both point to polling that shows them ahead. Collins is still the only Republican senator representing a state Kamala Harris carried.
Ohio holds at fourth. Sherrod Brown has seen surprisingly strong polling leads overSen. Jon Husted, who was appointed to this seat and has never been elected to it.
Iowa moves up a spot. A Marist poll taken Sept. 17-20 and released today had Josh Turek ahead of Ashley Hinson 50-42 among registered voters — getting to 50 in a poll is a positive sign for a Democrat in a red state.
Texas slips a spot because of Iowa’s move up. The race has polled close all summer, and that’s unlikely to change leading up to the election.
Florida holds at seventh. Angie Nixon and Sen. Ashley Moody were tied at 45% in a St. Pete Polls survey for Florida Politics taken Sept. 15-17. This is the special election for the seat Marco Rubio left to become Secretary of State.
Kansas holds at eighth, but it had its best week yet. Democrat Adam Hamilton now leads in some surveys for the first time. We still rate the race Expected R, and it will take more than one poll to move it.
And this is how The Caucus sees the whole Senate map:
| SENATE RATINGS SUMMARY · DEMOCRATS NEED 51 | |||||
| CATEGORY | SEATS | D TOTAL | |||
| Safe D | 9 | 43 | |||
| Expected D | 1 | 44 | |||
| D Advantage | 3 | 47 | |||
| Toss up | 6 | ||||
| R Advantage | |||||
| Expected R | 3 | ||||
| Safe R | 13 | ||||
| No election 34 D, 31 R | 65 | ||||
HELD NOW  47 Democratic 53 Republican | |||||
| Democrats reach 47 without the toss ups and 53 with all of them. | |||||