Rating Changes: Week of October 12th

South Carolina's Senate seat moves from Safe R to Expected R. Annie Andrews, the Charleston pediatrician who was the Democratic nominee in the 1st District in 2022, had raised $10.8 million through June 30 and held $4.1 million. The GOP’s Senate Leadership Fund pledged $5 million to the state on Oct. 6, and Majority Leader John Thune campaigned with Graham on Oct. 9, saying the party could not "take any chances." Trump is planning a trip. Republicans are still well ahead here. Jaime Harrison set a quarterly fundraising record against Lindsey Graham in 2020 and lost by 10.3 points, so a cash advantage has never been the thing that decides South Carolina. The reason we moved it is that the Senate GOP's main super PAC is now paying to defend a seat it had written off as safe.

Nebraska's Senate seat moves from Expected R to R Advantage. Dan Osborn is running as an independent again, and the state Democratic Party endorsed him in July 2025 rather than nominate anyone of its own. He took 46.5 percent against Sen. Deb Fischer in 2024. The spending this time is close to even. Through Oct. 1, PACs had filed $7.9 million against Osborn or for Sen. Pete Ricketts and $7.3 million the other way, more than $15 million between them. Cornhusker Majority PAC accounts for $4.7 million of the money against Osborn and Win It Back PAC for about $2 million. Nebraska Values PAC has put $3.4 million against Ricketts, and United Futures PAC started spending for Osborn at the end of September.

New Hampshire's Senate seat moves from Toss up to D Advantage. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen is retiring. Through Aug. 19, Chris Pappas had raised $15.4 million and had $4.3 million left after a contested primary. John Sununu had raised $4.2 million, spent $1.1 million of it and held $3.1 million, and the GOP’s No Going Back PAC reserved $10 million here in September. Shaheen won by 15.6 points in 2020 and Maggie Hassan by 9.2 in 2022. Outside money can close a gap like that, but it has to do the work a campaign normally does for itself. Of the four races here, New Hampshire is the one we came closest to holding until Thursday.

Georgia's governor's race moves from R Advantage to Toss up. Rick Jackson, a health care executive, had put at least $108 million of his own money into the race through June. Groups backing him had spent or reserved close to $76 million in general election airtime by mid-September. Former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms and the groups supporting her were at roughly $8 million. Jackson has now spent nearly everything he raised and has not put the race away. Obama endorsed Bottoms in a video on Oct. 8, and early voting opens Tuesday and runs through Oct. 30.

The five House seats all ran in yesterday’s Top 25. Nebraska's 2nd, California's 48th and Nevada's 3rd go from D Advantage to Expected D. Virginia's 1st and North Carolina's 1st go from R Advantage to Toss up. The Omaha cancellations are the clearest evidence of the week: the GOP’s Congressional Leadership Fund dropped its whole KETV reservation for Oct. 7 through Nov. 3 last Tuesday, and the Democrats’ House Majority PAC cut a WOWT buy for Oct. 13-19 from $130,000 to $50,000.