What to Watch on Election Day
When to expect results in your state, and our final Senate rankings.
NOV 3 / ELECTION DAY |
1. LEADING OFF
Happy Election Day, folks.
According to our new election night guide, we may not know who controls the Senate until tomorrow — at the earliest.
Democrats need to net four seats to win the Senate. By about 11 p.m. (ET), the vote for four Republican-held seats that we rate as Toss Ups or better for Democrats — North Carolina, Ohio, Texas and Kansas — should each be about 75 percent counted, which is when leads tend to stick in all but the closest races.
But even if Democrats win all four, they would still need to hold Michigan, the one seat they're defending that we rate a Toss Up. And in 2024, Michigan didn't finish counting until the Wednesday after Election Day. If Democrats lose any of those four, meanwhile, their likeliest replacements — Maine, Alaska, and Iowa — aren't expected to be 75 percent counted until Wednesday or later.
Those late-counting races may also be among the tightest. In our final rankings, we rate all four — Michigan, Maine, Alaska and Iowa — as Toss Ups.
And as Surina Venkat writes for The Caucus, President Donald Trump has spent the past year laying the groundwork to contest races Democrats are expected to win. His administration has already tried to pause one of those slow-counting Toss Ups, Alaska's Senate race, before a federal judge said no.
So don't be surprised if you go to bed tonight without knowing which party will run the Senate next year. (But rest assured we'll have you up-to-date tomorrow morning!)
Below, you'll find our final Senate rankings, the Republican former governor vouching for a South Carolina Democrat, and the ad a Texas Democrat booked during a boxing match to reach Latino men.
— Elias Isquith
2. OUR FINAL SENATE RANKINGS
Our last Senate rankings of the cycle are out, and both ratings we changed moved toward Democrats.
The bigger shake-up was in the order: Ohio and Maine each passed Alaska, which fell two spots, and Kansas and Iowa traded places.
| CAUCUS+ SENATE TOP 9 · WEEK 8 · FINAL RATINGS | ||
1 | North Carolina Roy Cooper vs. Michael Whatley · open | Expected D |
2 ▲1 | Ohio Sherrod Brown vs. Jon Husted · special | Toss up |
3 ▲1 | Maine Troy Jackson vs. Susan Collins | Toss up |
4 ▼2 | Alaska Mary Peltola vs. Dan Sullivan | Toss up |
5 | Texas James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton | Toss up |
6 ▲1 | Kansas Adam Hamilton vs. Roger Marshall | Toss up |
7 ▼1 | Iowa Josh Turek vs. Ashley Hinson · open | Toss up |
8 | South Carolina Annie Andrews vs. Darline Graham · appointed | R Advantage |
9 | Florida Angie Nixon vs. Ashley Moody · special | Expected R |
| Alaska slips two spots, with Ohio and Maine each moving up one. Kansas and Iowa trade places. South Carolina leaves Expected R for R Advantage, the only rating change on the board. | ||
To see where all nine Republican-held seats landed on our final board, read the full rankings at The Caucus.
3. THE REPUBLICAN EX-GOVERNOR BACKING ANNIE ANDREWS
South Carolina hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1998. Last week, Democrat Annie Andrews got help from a Republican who used to run the state.
Republican former South Carolina Governor David Beasley and Democratic former Governor Jim Hodges, who beat him in 1998, endorsed Andrews in a joint video her campaign released October 26. Andrews, Beasley says, "understands that leadership isn't about making people angrier."
Why would a Democrat lead with a Republican's endorsement? Because she can't win without Republican votes. Trump carried South Carolina by nearly 18 points in 2024, and in a New York Times/Siena poll released October 28, Andrews was winning 8 percent of Trump voters. Her campaign says more than 100 Republicans have joined its "Republicans for Annie" coalition.
She's running against Republican South Carolina Senator Darline Graham, who was appointed after her brother, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, died in July. This week we moved the race from Expected R to R Advantage, meaning Graham is still favored but Andrews has a real shot.
Polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern, and our guide expects the state to be about 75 percent counted by 10 p.m.
To find out why Senate Democrats' super PAC finally put money into the race, read Surina Venkat's full story at The Caucus.
4. WHICH STATES WILL COUNT FASTEST TONIGHT
Our new election night guide uses Call the Map's hour-by-hour figures from 2024 to show when each state with a race we're watching should cross the 75 percent mark — which we're focusing on because, by that point, most races can be called (except for the real nail-biters, of course).
Florida is usually the fastest-counting state in the country and should be about 75 percent counted by 8 p.m. Eastern. At the other end of the continuum, Arizona's vote was only 55 percent counted by 2 a.m. two years ago and still hadn't reached 75 percent by Friday morning.
To find out when your state should be mostly counted, read our full election-night guide at The Caucus.
5. AD WATCH
Last Saturday night, Democrat Gina Hinojosa, who is running for governor of Texas, bought ad time for a seemingly unusual audience: the DAZN stream of boxer Canelo Álvarez's fight against Christian Mbilli.
The 30-second spot is called "No Te Dejes," which the candidate says before translating as "Fight back." She says she learned that from her grandma, who grew up "right here in the Valley," referring to Texas's Rio Grande Valley, a heavily Latino, long-Democratic region where, in 2024, Trump had unprecedented success for a Republican.
The fight now, Hinojosa says, is against "the billionaires and corporations," and after listing a few policy goals — most specifically, opposition to data centers — Hinojosa closes by saying it's time "to win."
Why a boxing match? Latino men in Texas backed Trump by nearly two to one in 2024, and sports broadcasts are one way to reach them. Hinojosa is also following a recent, successful precedent: In 2024, Democratic Arizona Senator Ruben Gallego courted the same voters with boxing watch parties on his way to victory.
We rate this race R Advantage, meaning Abbott is favored but Hinojosa could win in a state that hasn't elected a Democratic governor in more than three decades.
To hear Hinojosa's own case for why Texas is ready for a change, read Jake Rakov's recent interview with her at The Caucus.
6. IN THE NEWS
The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) is on track to spend more than $100 million on ads coordinated with its candidates in 60 House districts, helped by about $30 million from the Republican National Committee (RNC), after a Supreme Court ruling this summer struck down limits on that spending. (The Washington Sun)
Two possible 2028 candidates have been the party's busiest surrogates: Democrat Pete Buttigieg, the former Transportation Secretary, has campaigned in 38 states this year, while Democratic Georgia Senator Raphael Warnock stumped last month in South Carolina, set to open the Democratic nominating calendar. (TIME)
The final New York Times/Siena polls also had Democrat Amy Acton leading Republican Vivek Ramaswamy 49 to 43 percent for Ohio governor and Democrat Rob Sand leading Republican Zach Lahn 51 to 43 in Iowa, with Kansas's governor's race within a point. (Siena Research Institute)
