When We Should Know Results in Competitive States

Polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern in Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina and Vermont. Alaska's close at 1 a.m. Wednesday. For most of the hours in between, the numbers you’ll see are fractions of a count that everyone will be overanalyzing.

Election night guide Call the Map pulled archived copies of the AP count as the New York Times carried it, hour by hour, and worked out what share of each state's final vote was actually in at each point. We took that table and found the hour each state crossed 75 percent. A lot of races still can’t be called by that point, but most can.

Florida should clear three quarters by 8 p.m., as it’s usually the fastest counting state in the country. Kentucky gets there at 9, Georgia, Indiana, South Carolina and Vermont at 10. By 11 p.m. Ohio, Texas, North Carolina, Virginia, Kansas, Arkansas, New York and New Jersey usually have all passed it too.

Michigan was at 71 percent at 2 a.m. in 2024 and didn’t finish until Wednesday. It has a Senate race, a governor's race and four House seats we rate competitive. Arizona was at 55 percent at 2 a.m. and 74 percent by Friday morning. Maine stood at 63 percent on election night, and if nobody clears 50 percent it goes to ranked choice votes. Alaska reports by state House district and generally doesn’t reach three quarters counted before Wednesday.

Which way late ballots lean is not guaranteed. They favored Republicans in Georgia, North Carolina and Ohio in 2022. Two years before that they favored Democrats in Michigan and Wisconsin, and Nevada's did the same in 2022. Mail gets counted at the end in Rhode Island, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Oregon and Alaska, and the bigger cities in Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada report late.

What to watch, in the order the states get there:

• Florida, 8 p.m. Fastest count in the country, with a Senate special and a governor's race on it. Any margin inside half a point triggers a recount.

• Georgia, 10 p.m. Candidates need 50 percent plus one, or the top two go to a December 1 runoff. Fulton, Gwinnett, Chatham and Henry all lean Democratic and all report on the slow end.

• South Carolina, 10 p.m. Annie Andrews against Sen. Darline Graham, appointed in July to finish the term her brother Lindsey held until his death. SC-01 sits 33rd on our board.

• North Carolina, 11 p.m. Wake, Guilford and Forsyth are Democratic counties that report late in the night, so an early Republican lead in Roy Cooper's race wouldn't be too unexpected.

• Ohio, 11 p.m. More competitive races than anywhere else on our ratings: a Senate special, the governor's race and six House seats. Cuyahoga and Hamilton counties come in toward the end.

• Texas, 11 p.m. Polls close at 8pm (ET) across most of the state and last time the count was 61 percent complete just an hour after that.

• Pennsylvania, midnight. Four of our top 25 House flip opportunities, more than any other state. But it could be a long wait, as the count stood at just 15 percent at 9 p.m. two years ago.

• Nebraska, 1 a.m. Dan Osborn running as an independent against Sen. Pete Ricketts. Omaha's Douglas County held the most uncounted ballots in the 2nd District after election night in 2024.

• New Hampshire, 1 a.m. Chris Pappas against John Sununu for the open Senate seat, in a state where Hillsborough County split dead even in 2024.

• Wisconsin, 1 a.m. Milwaukee released its mail ballots in a single batch after midnight two years ago. The statewide number will likely move when that hits.

• Michigan, overnight. Mail gets counted at the end and the big cities report last.

• Iowa, unsure but likely overnight. Senate, governor and three House races, and unfortunately we have no reliable overnight benchmark from 2024 to gauge timing.

• Maine, overnight — or later. Troy Jackson against Susan Collins in a race that could decide the Senate. Sixty-three percent of votes were counted by 2 a.m. in 2024, and a ranked-choice round the state says runs a week and a half to two weeks if nobody clears 50.

• Nevada, Wednesday. The governor's race is the one to watch, but the state usually takes a couple of days to finish counting.

• Alaska, Wednesday at the earliest. Mary Peltola against Sen. Dan Sullivan, tallied by state House district under ranked choice.

• Arizona, after Friday. One of the slowest counting states, includes competitive governor’s race and three House seats, including AZ-01 and AZ-06, both in the top 10 of our rankings.

• California, unknown. Five of the House races we are watching are here, and some of them might not be decided until next week or later.

• Montana, unknown. MT-01 is a toss up, and the state was a third counted at 2 a.m. last election

One caveat: These timings come from a presidential year, and this is a midterm with different early and mail patterns. In some states the rules have changed since then.

Count timing from Call the Map's 2026 election night guide at callthemap.com/election-night-guide. Ratings and House targets are from Caucus+.