Democrats Win Congress, Ride Biggest Wave Since Watergate

1. LEADING OFF

Good morning, folks! (Especially to those of you who stayed up late last night watching the vote count in Mississippi...)

Republicans went into Tuesday with two big advantages: new House maps in states they control, and billionaires willing to spend truly unfathomable sums of money on their behalf, especially in the most high-profile races.

Neither were close to enough to withstand what we can now say, with confidence, was indeed a "wave" election for Democrats.

Take the maps. In North Carolina, Republicans redrew the House map last year to try to win one more seat. They went into Tuesday holding 10 out of the state's 14 districts. Come January, that number could be down to four. And as you can read in Russell Payne's story below, this was not unique to North Carolina: the same dynamic happened countrywide.

Then there's the money. In Texas, Elon Musk had spent $158 million by mid-October in support of Ken Paxton, the Republican nominee to the Senate. It didn't matter: Democrat James Talarico beat Paxton decisively all the same.

Maps and money can decide a tight election. But this one wasn't close. Democrats won the national House vote by about 13 points, according to a New York Times estimate, and both Democratic strategist Dan Pfeiffer and the Washington Post say you have to go back to 1974 — the first election after Watergate — to find similar numbers.

In that environment, even something as seemingly outlandish as "Democrats dominate in Texas" becomes not merely a possibility, but an actual fact. Just ask Governor-Elect Hinojosa or Senator-Elect Talarico. 

Below, you'll find Kim Lyons on the Senate seats Democrats hadn't won in decades, the Mississippi Senate race that's still too close to call, and what North Carolina voters did to their own tax code.

— Elias Isquith

2. AN EARTHQUAKE IN THE SENATE

Democrats needed to flip four Republican-held seats to win the Senate. As our Kim Lyons writes, they went well past that:

Democrats gained control of the Senate in Tuesday's midterm election, unofficial results show, flipping seats in at least seven states, including Texas, Ohio, Kansas and South Carolina.

In a victory that was almost inconceivable a year ago, Texas state legislator James Talarico will be the first Democrat to represent the Lone Star in the Senate for more than three decades, after beating attorney general Ken Paxton. The last time Texas elected a Democrat to the Senate was in 1988 with Lloyd Bentsen's victory. That was the year before Talarico was born.

“We just proved that all the money in the world is no match for the people of Texas,” Talarico said Tuesdaynight.

Another surprise came in Kansas, as Democrat Adam Hamilton beat incumbent Roger Marshall.

Progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, the former Wayne County health director, beat Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan. El-Sayed will be the first Muslim to serve in the U.S. Senate after fighting through a bitter primary and widespread Islamophobic attacks, including from President Trump, and massive spending from outside groups against him.

To see the roster of Democrats headed to the Senate in January, from New Hampshire to Illinois, read Kim Lyons's full story at The Caucus.

3. HOW HOUSE REPUBLICANS PLAYED THEMSELVES

As our Russell Payne writes, Republicans may have helped Democrats build their new House majority:

The Republicans mid-decade redistricting efforts appeared to have backfired, or at least failed to stem the Democratic tide that washed across the United States on Tuesday night.

Democrats appear poised to win at least 250, with NBC News estimating that Democrats would control 258 seats.

The most eye-popping results, however, might end up coming from North Carolina, where Republicans had hoped to all but wipe out Democrats in the state by drawing an aggressive map where Republicans were advantaged in 13 of the state's 14 districts. As of early Wednesday, Democrats lead in ten of the state's 14 Congressional districts, though many races in the state had not yet been called by the Associated Press.

In pushing to extract the largest potential Republican House delegation from each state through redistricting, Republicans necessarily reduced their partisan advantage in what they considered safe districts.

This thinning of the margin made the Republicans in many of these seats more vulnerable in the case of an overwhelming Democratic wave, as played out Tuesday.

The outcome, sometimes called a “dummymander,” had been seen as an exceedingly unlikely outcome when Republicans in these states enacted their new maps.

To see how the same thing played out in Texas and Florida, read Russell Payne's full story at The Caucus.

4. HISTORY IN TEXAS

Democrats picked up governorships in Texas, Ohio, Georgia and Iowa, and as Kim Lyons writes, a few of the winners made history:

Thirty-six states had gubernatorial elections on Tuesday, and Democrats made significant gains across the country. According to unofficial results, the party now holds a majority of governorships for the first time since 2010.

Perhaps the biggest surprise of the night came in Texas, as Gina Hinojosa beat incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott. She's the first Democrat elected governor in the Lone Star State since Ann Richards in the 1990s, and the first Latina to hold the office.

“It never bothered me that they doubted me. It bothered me that they doubted us,” Hinojosa said at her victory party in Austin. “Texas, my faith in you never wavered.”

Former Atlanta mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms will be Georgia's first woman governor and the first Black woman elected governor in the U.S. after beating GOP billionaire Rick Jackson.

To see which two possible 2028 presidential candidates cruised to reelection on Tuesday, read Kim's full story at The Caucus.

5. UPS AND DOWNS

👍 Mississippi hasn't sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1982, and President Donald Trump won it by nearly 23 points in 2024. As of early this morning, Democrat Scott Colom led Republican Mississippi Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith by 43 votes out of more than 945,000 counted. (Yes, you read that right: 43.)

👎 The race is still uncalled, and thousands of affidavit ballots, Mississippi's version of provisional ballots, still have to be reviewed. The state has no automatic recount, so a lead this small could still disappear.

👍 Oklahoma voters rejected State Question 847, which would have tightened limits on how fast property taxes can rise, with 54 percent voting no. Critics had warned the cap would squeeze funding for schools and other local services.

👎 North Carolina voters, with nearly 62 percent of the vote, cut the top income tax rate their state constitution allows from 7 percent to 3.5 percent. It doesn't lower anyone's taxes today, but it means Democrats, who just won a majority in the state House, can't raise rates past that line — even for schools or roads — without another constitutional amendment.

6. IN THE NEWS

• Latino voters moved toward Democrats across the country Tuesday, from a full sweep of Texas's heavily Mexican American Rio Grande Valley to gains in Pennsylvania's Lehigh Valley and central and south Florida, helping carry Talarico and Hinojosa to statewide wins. (Politico)

• Democrats flipped at least five state legislative chambers — the North Carolina House, both chambers in Wisconsin, the Pennsylvania Senate and the Minnesota House — and won full control of state government in Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. (Ballotpedia)

• Missouri voters rejected Amendment 3, which would have undone the abortion-rights amendment they passed in 2024 and banned most abortions again, by about 55 percent to 45 percent. (Missouri Independent)