In North Carolina, former Gov. Roy Cooper looks poised to defeat his Republican opponent, Michale Whatley, in the state’s Senate contest this November, with more than a quarter of voters who supported President Donald Trump in 2024 saying they won’t support Whatley.
North Carolina, alongside Maine, Texas, Ohio, and Alaska, is on the shortlist of states where Democrats need to flip a Senate seat if their plans of retaking control of the Senate are to come to fruition next year. In North Carolina at least, Cooper is posting commanding polling leads heading into the final stretch of the campaign.
One recent survey from Elon University found Cooper leading Whatley, who is the former chair of the Republican National Committee and state GOP, 49% to 38%. While the survey found a larger lead for Cooper than other recent surveys, the topline number of support for Cooper is in line with other polls, which have found Cooper enjoying over 50% support in the state.
Jason Husser, a pollster and professor of political science at Elon University, told The Caucus that the key to Cooper’s success lies in the intentions of voters who supported Trump in 2024 but aren’t so quick to support Whatley in 2026, mostly because of a poor perception on Trump’s handling of the economy.
According to the Elon University poll just 72% of voters who supported Trump in 2024 are currently planning to support Whatley in 2026, with 10% of those Trump 2024 voters supporting Cooper at this juncture. The rest either plan to support a third party candidate, stay home or are undecided.
While it is possible that many of those undecided Trump 2024 voters break for Whatley in the end, Cooper is still starting from a comparatively favorable position, with 93% of voters who supported Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 election planning to vote for Cooper in 2026.
Husser also explained that part of the reason he suspects his poll found a larger lead for Cooper than some other surveys is because of his strategy for gauging lower turnout midterm elections.
“I try to replicate what's on the ballot so I include options for the Libertarian and Green Party candidates,” Husser said. “We also don't try and push people to pick a side when they’re unsure, especially in midterm elections.”
Husser also said that he sees Cooper’s current lead as different from other times in recent years when Democrats have thought they might flip a Senate seat in North Carolina. Namely, Busser said, Cooper is already well known in the state, having served as attorney general for 16 years before serving as governor for eight years, and has a well established political brand that will be hard for Republicans to change.
“Democratic leads can evaporate and be highly ephemeral in North Carolina but that often happens when Republicans spend money and define the Democratic opponent,” Busser said. “It’ll be difficult for Republican last month attack ads to change perceptions of Cooper.”
Republicans will also face an uphill battle in any attempt to blanket the airwaves with ads in the final few months due to Whatley’s financial disadvantage. According to the latest Federal Election Commission filings, Whatley’s campaign has only raised some $11.2 million to Cooper’s $35 million, and has only around $3.5 million in cash on hand to Cooper’s $20.7 million.
(Photo: Roy Cooper, via Roy Cooper Campaign Facebook)