Good morning, and welcome to week two. We’re 50 days out. This week, people start voting.

Friday: Early in-person voting opens in Minnesota, South Dakota, and Virginia — the first three states where you can walk into an election office and cast a ballot. Early voting starts Saturday in Vermont, it begins in Illinois next week, and everywhere else in October.

Saturday: The deadline for every state to have ballots in the mail to voters serving overseas and in the military. Federal law sets it at 45 days before the election.

Any day now: The Supreme Court is expected to rule on the Trump administration’s new Postal Service rules for mail ballots. This is the third time the administration has taken the question there in six weeks, and this time ballots are already being printed.

Democrats (likely) get a House seat back: After the U.S. Supreme Court stepped in Thursday, Missouri will use its 2022 congressional map for November, not the one Republicans drew last year to take a Kansas City seat from Representative Emanuel Cleaver, though an appeal is still pending.

Not happening: A government shutdown. Congress passed a stopgap on Sept. 1 funding everything through Dec. 11, which puts the next spending fight safely on the other side of the election.

A frame for the week: Republicans say this election turns on turnout, and they’ve started saying out loud that they’re worried about their own. There are two ways to fix that — give your voters a reason to show up, or make it harder for everyone else’s. The nonpartisan Brennan Center counts 44 new laws restricting voting since the start of last year, across 19 states, more than in any cycle it has tracked.

The Supreme Court is about to rule on how mail ballots get handled. Tarrant County, Texas, just cut 92 polling places. Missouri gave up a map drawn to erase a Democratic seat, but only because a court made it.

Normally the calendar would settle this. Courts avoid changing election rules close to an election — the Purcell principle — and ballots are available this week. But election law scholars have questioned how consistently this Court applies that principle now. As is often the case with the Roberts Court, Democrats must prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

Today: We’ve got new numbers showing independents breaking toward Democrats, Republicans admitting they might lose the Senate, and our first Reader Email!

— Elias Isquith

Democrats need to net three seats to take back the House, and we rate 21 districts as genuine toss-ups. Sixteen of those are currently held by Republicans, so Democrats have plenty of opportunities.

Every Monday, starting today, we’re going to rank the 25 Republican-held seats Democrats have the best chance of winning. These are snapshots of where a race stands that week, not predictions about how it ends — except for the last one, the Monday before the election, which is us calling it.

Here’s the top 10 to start:

For the next 15, and to see how the whole map shakes out, see the full Top 25 at The Caucus.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune told a South Dakota station he worries about losing the majority “for sure.” Ted Cruz told Larry Kudlow the midterms look “bumpy.” Earlier this year, Republicans expected to hold the Senate comfortably.

Democrats need four seats. Surina Venkat reports that Thune and Cruz agree on what the midterms turn on, and that one of their colleagues has already said where he thinks the bottom is.

To find out which Senator says he’s “not very optimistic,” and about what, read Surina’s full story.

Here’s one reason they’re nervous. 

More Americans call themselves independents than members of either party, and they’re usually who decides a close election. Gallup asks them every few months which way they lean, and lately the answer has been moving toward Democrats.

Forty-nine percent said they lean Democratic in the second quarter of this year, up three points from a year ago. The share leaning Republican fell to 39%, from 43%. Among all voters, 31% now call themselves Democrats and 25% call themselves Republicans.

Those are national numbers, not a forecast of any one race. But they help explain why Republicans who spent this spring projecting confidence are suddenly talking about a bad November.

To see what the shift means for actual Senate seats, read Kim Lyons’ full story.

We’re 100% independent and reader supported. The more members we have, the more coverage we can provide. Become a founding member of The Caucus today. It’s just $10/month or $90 for a year.

Sandra C. from Tucson writes:

Great question, Sandra. Democrats need 51, not 50, because Vice President Vance breaks ties in a 50-50 Senate. Your question is whether they need 52 — a seat of cushion — and it’s worth taking seriously.

A one-seat majority isn’t really a governing majority. Any individual senator can stop whatever they want, so leadership has to keep everyone happy all the time. Senator John Fetterman (D-PA) comes up most here. He could leave the party, and even if he doesn’t, a one-vote margin hands him enormous leverage.

The odds question is harder, and anybody giving you a percentage this far out is just guessing. Nine races look close, six of them are seats Republicans hold, and Democrats would need four of those six while losing none of their own. That’s doable but demanding. It’s also much more plausible than it looked six months ago, when Republicans were describing the Senate as out of reach for Democrats. That’s not what they’re saying now.

Thanks to Sandra for our first reader email. Keep them coming ([email protected]). Your questions are a big part of how we decide our coverage.

— Senator Jon Husted fired his campaign’s political director after the Washington Post found Nazi imagery and a playlist celebrating white-minority-ruled Rhodesia on his social media. He’s the second Husted staffer out in two months over vetting failures (The Hill)

— Republicans hold 53 Senate seats and are defending most of them in states Trump carried. CBS’s tracker has nine Senate and 42 House races deciding both chambers (CBS News)

— Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs has outraised Republican challenger Andy Biggs more than five to one, and the Democratic Governors Association has pledged $10 million more (Arizona Daily Star)