WEDNESDAY EDITION

SEP 9 / 55 DAYS OUT

Welcome to The Caucus. We’re an independent news outlet covering the campaigns, policies, organizations, and politicians in the fight for the future of the Democratic Party. Not in terms of the constant horserace, nor as merely the responses to Republican attacks, but honest and fair reporting.

The reality is there are Democratic candidates across the country of all shades of the political spectrum running for federal and state office who have inspiring and exciting ideas to move the party and country forward. They're proposing important policies, usually by way of a press release that will wither in reporters’ email boxes, never to see the light of day. I would know, I’ve written thousands of them over my career — and have received only dozens of responses from reporters. I don’t blame the media outlets that cover politics, it’s simply the nature of the relationship between campaigns and the press. But that’s one of the reasons we started The Caucus. 

This country is bigger and more diverse than people remember. It’s easy to say a Democrat from Seattle would never win in Lexington or that a Democrat from the Rio Grande Valley doesn’t stand a chance in Minneapolis. Geographic differences are obvious, but the facts of everyday life for those populations are different too: local economies, social demographics, cultural history, the list goes on. These are all variables that affect what being a Democrat means in those places, but they don’t get adequately discussed. 

We’re here to provide those who care about the future of the Democratic Party a place they can trust to provide complete coverage and real facts in a clear, concise way. We’re 100% reader supported and not associated with any political organizations. 

Every weekday morning, you’ll get a newsletter laying out what to watch in Democratic politics. From the races that matter most to the policies being pursued to the people who are shaping it all, our team of experienced reporters will give you the context you need to make it all make sense. You can read all of our coverage at TheCaucus.news

Any questions or comments? You can always reach us at [email protected]. With that, I’ll hand things off to the person you’ll usually see in your inbox, Elias Isquith, who is leading our morning newsletter. 

– Jake Rakov, Co-Founder

1. LEADING OFF

Hello, Caucusers!  I'm Elias Isquith, and I’m thrilled to be your newsletter guide through what may be the most consequential mid-term elections in modern American history. 

I’ve covered politics for 15 years, most recently at Vox and The New York Times, and I couldn't be more excited to apply the experience and lessons I’ve learned to informing — and empowering — readers like you.

In the spirit of transparency, I'll admit to at least one bias: too much political coverage treats a handful of marquee races as the whole election, because those are the ones with reporters assigned to them. 

But there are Democrats running in places most national outlets never visit, saying things you’d never guess from the coverage. And sometimes, what works for them has almost nothing to do with what works two time zones away. 

So rather than telling you what a strategist in Washington thinks about a race in Iowa, I want to explain these campaigns on their own terms, let you hear directly from the Democrats running them — and draw your own conclusions.

You may be wondering: How could anyone cover something as big and complicated as the 2026 elections? There are 435 House seats at stake, as well as a third of the Senate, three dozen governorships, and literally thousands of races on the state-level below. 

You can’t follow all of it. No one could. But you don’t have to. What’s more important is to know which races will be decisive — and that’s where this newsletter, and we at The Caucus more broadly, come in.

To separate the signal from the noise, this newsletter will have a weekly rhythm. Mondays, The Week Ahead. Tuesdays, Ratings Changes and Ad Watch. Wednesdays, a Q&A and our Senate Projection. Thursdays, a Column and In the States. Fridays, a short Week in Review.

And soon, a daily Race Spotlight that gives you a closer look at one contest.

Last but not least, we run a Reader Question on Mondays. So if you're wondering about a candidate, a campaign, or a policy, write to us at [email protected] and we’ll pick one lucky question per week for a deeper dive.

2. EXCLUSIVE Q&A WITH ROB SAND

A Democratic candidate for president hasn’t won in Iowa since 2012. But Rob Sand, the state auditor and now his party’s nominee for governor, has won statewide twice, and currently leads in the polls with under two months to go.

In an exclusive Q&A with The Caucus, Sand explained why he holds 100 town halls a year and wants to make them mandatory for every elected official in Iowa. “It’s like a performance review from the people you’re elected to represent,” Sand said.

He also told us what he’d do about the cost of living, starting with ending Medicaid privatization on day one, as well as why he thinks his message is resonating with Iowans in a way that other Democrats haven’t: “Iowans are tired after a decade of one-party control that has left us with a failing economy, public schools under attack, and rising cancer rates.”

3. THE NINE CLOSEST SENATE RACES

Before we get into our latest on the race to control the Senate, a quick word on the categories we’ll be using from now until the end of the campaign season. 

We won’t BS you when the data isn’t strong enough to back any strong conclusions. If we genuinely don’t know who the polls are favoring, we’ll call the race Toss Up. Meanwhile, we use the terms D Advantage and R Advantage, to indicate when one side is ahead — but not so safely that a bad month couldn’t cost them. Those three are our Competitive Tier. Next comes Expected D and Expected R, which means something major needs to change for the seat to change parties. Finally, we see Safe D and Safe R seats as basically decided.

So how do things stand as of today? 

According to our system, there are nine competitive Senate races: North Carolina, Alaska, Maine, Ohio, Texas, Michigan, New Hampshire, Iowa, and Georgia. Six of these seats are held by Republicans. And, right now, three of these races — in Alaska, Ohio, and Texas, respectively — are especially interesting.

In each of these states, it seems, what’s making the race more competitive has less to do with the Democratic candidates than with structural disadvantages and an increasingly sour national mood.

In Alaska, the disadvantage is structural but also partisan. President Trump is unpopular in Alaska, and the state’s Republican Party is divided. That’s one reason why three of the four candidates in the general are Republicans. That basic math gives Peltola a real advantage.

In Ohio, it shows up as a straight reversal. The same anger at Washington that cost Sherrod Brown his seat in 2024 is now pointed at Senator Jon Husted, his opponent. 

And in Texas, it shows up in the matchup. James Talarico has money and a message; but it’s much harder to imagine him leading in the polls in September if his opponent were anyone besides the MAGA dead-ender Ken Paxton.

Democrats need to pick up four seats to take the chamber. Two more states could get competitive if things shift, and we’ll be here to tell you if it happens.

Join The Caucus

We’re 100% independent and reader supported. The more members we have, the more coverage we can provide. Become a founding member of The Caucus today.

We’re your go-to source for what’s actually happening inside the Democratic Party. We don’t just write about the news of the day, we tell you what will matter tomorrow. We want to hire more reporters to cover campaigns, well-sourced journalists in Washington to write about what's happening on the Hill, and analysts to break down all of the races you care about. But we need your help to do it.

Please consider becoming a founding member today. It’s just $10/month or $90 for a year.

4. IN THE NEWS

President Trump asks the Supreme Court for help purging voters (CNN)

Gov. Pritzker launches a new $20M PAC for the midterms (NOTUS)

Why some Republican candidates won’t attend Trump’s mid-term convention (NYT)

Deluzio Says He “Might” Run for PA Senate Seat in 2028 (The Caucus)