As Texas Starts Voting, Democrats Make Their Final Pitch

1. LEADING OFF

Good morning. Fifteen days out.

Early voting opens in Texas today, and Republicans and Democrats are making very different final pitches to voters.

The Republican pitch, at least in Texas, is to vote for the party, whoever the candidate is. A super PAC backing Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton has been running an ad asking voters to back "the Republican ticket" without ever saying Paxton's name (check out our reader question below for more on this). That ad features his estranged wife, State Sen. Angela Paxton, but other PACs are running variations of the theme.

Democrats, meanwhile, are asking voters to back their candidates by name. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro just launched a federal PAC to raise money for four Democrats running for the House in his state: Bob Harvie, Bob Brooks, Paige Cognetti and Janelle Stelson, all of whom are on this week's Top 25. 

Over the next 15 days, we'll find out which works better: asking Republicans who don't like their candidates to vote for the party, or asking voters to support specific candidates rather than the party in general.

Below, you'll find our first exclusive, on billboards about ICE going up in five Senate battleground states; the Ohio Republican who's nearly out of money; a Texas reader asking whether a Republican ad that names no candidates means the GOP is panicking; and what the 2028 hopefuls have in the bank, from Mark Kelly's $26.85 million down to Kamala Harris's $867,000.

— Elias Isquith

2. THE WEEK AHEAD

Here's where those final pitches are being made this week. All times are Eastern.

Today:

• Trump rallies near Wichita for Republican Kansas Senator Roger Marshall, in a race we rate R Advantage. Marshall's campaign had $922,090 left at the end of September, less than a third of Democrat Adam Hamilton's $3.18 million.

Tuesday:

• Trump is in Greenville, North Carolina, for Republican Michael Whatley, who ended September with $916,100 to Democrat Roy Cooper's $12.48 million.

Wednesday:

• Two Senate debates: Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers meet for the second time in Michigan, and Marshall and Hamilton debate in Kansas at 8 pm.

Thursday:

• Campaigns' pre-general reports are due to the FEC, covering October 1 through 14.

Friday:

• Last day for Texas election offices to receive mail-ballot applications. Received, not postmarked.

Trump's first two stops of the week are for Senate Republicans who each had less than $1 million left at the end of September.

3. EXCLUSIVE: BILLBOARDS ABOUT ICE’S SHOOTINGS GO UP IN 5 STATES

As our Russell Payne has first this morning, America's Voice, a nonprofit that advocates for immigration reform, is putting up billboards in Texas, North Carolina, Georgia, Minnesota and Iowa in the last weeks of the campaign, reminding voters of people killed by immigration enforcement officers.

Every one of those states has a Senate race on the ballot.

Unlike a TV or online ad, a billboard can't be skipped, and these are going up while early voting is already underway in Texas and North Carolina.

To find out whose faces will be on the Minnesota billboards, and why America's Voice's executive director expects Latino voters to turn out anyway, read Russell Payne's exclusive at The Caucus.

4. AN OHIO REPUBLICAN IS NEARLY OUT OF MONEY

Republican Rep. Max Miller (OH-07) is nearly out of money. He ended September with $122,835 in his campaign account, about a tenth of what Democrat Brian Poindexter had, and over the whole campaign he has now spent more than he's taken in.

That's a big part of why Ohio's 7th District jumped seven spots on this week's Top 25, to 15th.

Miller isn't on his own, though. The Congressional Leadership Fund, the House Republicans' main super PAC, is spending about $1.1 million a week there, at the higher rates super PACs pay.

New York's 17th District went the other way. Democrat Cait Conley raised more than anyone else on the list last quarter, but her race fell nine spots, to 17th. Republican Rep. Mike Lawler (NY-17) finished September with $2.85 million to Conley's $1.17 million, and Republican outside groups have outspent Democratic ones in the district by more than four to one for three straight weeks.

Reminder: Democrats need a net gain of three seats for a House majority.

To see which Kentucky district fell off the list entirely, read the full rankings at The Caucus.

5. READER QUESTION: IS THE GOP PANICKING?

Sam F. in Texas asks:

Thanks, Sam. The message is a normal one for the end of a campaign. But running it on TV during a football game is not.

Warning voters that things will get worse if the other party takes over is about as standard as campaign messages get. President Trump's political team has been planning to run on it since at least April, when CNN reported his advisers wanted to cast the midterms as a choice between the two parties rather than a referendum on him.

But when an ad like that turns up on TV, it's usually a sign of panic.

Why? Because when a party wants to talk to its own voters, it usually does it with mail and digital ads, which are much easier to target towards the voters most likely to be swayed by a "vote for the party, even if you're mad at it" pitch. 

Broadcast TV works the other way. You pay to reach everyone, including plenty of people who won't find such a blunt appeal to partisanship compelling. 

So a "vote Republican anyway" message during a football game two weeks before an election is a party trying to reach as many Republicans as it can, in a last-ditch effort that it knows is inefficient. It's a desperation play.

Texas fits that picture. Stations there have gotten so crowded with political ads that allies of Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton started buying time on national NFL broadcasts instead.

Asking Republicans to vote for Republicans is normal. Paying for broadcast TV to ask them, two weeks out, in a state Trump won by almost 14 points, is not.

Have a question of your own? Send it to [email protected].

6. WHO HAS MONEY LEFT TO SPEND

We also put every competitive campaign's summer fundraising in one place, for the House and the Senate.

Texas is the only Senate Toss Up where the Democrat has more money left than the Republican. Democrat James Talarico finished September with $14.59 million; Paxton had $4.93 million.

For the first time, we also added up what the potential 2028 Democratic contenders are sitting on. Arizona Senator Mark Kelly leads with $26.85 million. Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff is second, with $26.27 million in his reelection account, though he’ll spend a chunk of that to ensure he wins next month — and he said on a debate stage last week that he won't run for president in 2028.

Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro's $19.87 million is all in a state account, which can't be moved into a federal one. Last week he launched his first federal committee, New Path PAC, which The Philadelphia Inquirer called the strongest signal yet that he's eyeing a 2028 run.

To learn why Illinois Governor JB Pritzker's $44.42 million sits outside our rankings, read the full 2028 tracker at The Caucus.

7. IN THE NEWS

• Republican operatives running a focus group in a traditionally red Midwestern state this month were caught off guard when their own party's voters blamed high gas prices on "corrupt politicians" and "billionaires." (CNN)

• A CBS News/YouGov poll of Texas released Sunday, taken October 8 to 16, finds the Senate race essentially tied, and most of Paxton's voters say they're backing him because he's the Republican nominee or to stop Talarico, not because of Paxton himself. (CBS News)

• Democrats have a real shot at ending Republican Senate winning streaks that go back to 1932 in Kansas, 1988 in Texas and 1998 in South Carolina, where Democrat Annie Andrews has pulled within a few points. (Axios)