Democratic Candidate Sean McCann, MI-04 Source: Sean McCann for Congress Facebook
A top elections forecaster is pushing their ratings for eight House races in the direction of the Democrats, following new polling indicating that Americans are increasingly turning on Republicans ahead of the midterms.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics has shifted eight House races across as many states in favor of Democrats with just seven weeks until election day.
Specifically, the races in Arkansas’s Second, Nevada’s Second, New York’s 21st, and Ohio’s 10th districts have shifted from being seen as safe Republican to likely Republican in November. Colorado’s Fifth was shifted from a likely Republican seat to a lean Republican seat. Iowa’s Second and Michigan’s Fourth shifted from lean Republican to toss-up, and New Jersey’s Seventh shifted from a toss-up to lean Democratic. All of these seats are currently occupied by Republicans.
The forecaster cited recent polling from The New York Times and Siena University that found Democrats enjoyed an 8.5 point advantage on the generic ballot, a measure of which party voters nationally prefer. For context, the Real Clear Politics average of polls currently has Democrats up about 8.7 points in the generic ballot.
For comparison, in 2018, Democrats enjoyed a generic ballot polling average of 8.4 points, and in 2006, Democrats led the generic ballot by 7.9 points. If public opinion stays steady, this could mean that Republicans are set to suffer dramatic losses in the House akin to the past two times Democrats roared back into the majority while a Republican occupied the White House.
However, the flurry of mid-decade redistricting that preceded these midterms is likely to hamper Democrats’ gains. Still, per Sabato’s Crystal Ball, an 8 point generic ballot deficit for Republicans would likely result in a loss of around 28 seats, per a model put out by the forecaster earlier this year.