Good morning. Forty-nine days out.

Tuesdays at The Caucus are for two things. Ratings changes — which races moved on our board since last Tuesday, and what moved them. And Ad Watch, where we take a spot that just went up and tell you what it’s doing and who it’s aimed at. An ad buy is a campaign deciding where its money does the most good, which is worth knowing whatever you make of the ad. Our first is Jocelyn Benson’s new spot on data centers, and you can watch it and read our analysis below.

Also Today: the Trump voters Roy Cooper is peeling off in North Carolina and Sherrod Brown campaigning on your electric bill.

— Elias Isquith

Welcome to Ad Watch. Every Tuesday, we’ll look at a new campaign spot: who it’s trying to reach, what it wants them to believe, and what that tells us about the race.

First up is “Michigan First” from Democratic Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson’s campaign for governor.

A data center looms behind farmland as a man warns about land, water, and electric bills. The spot accuses Republican Rep. John James (MI-10) of benefiting from the industry, then presents Benson’s proposed moratorium and end to data-center tax breaks. Its message: “He profits, we pay for it.”

The backdrop is growing opposition to nearby data centers. Annenberg found that opposition rose from 49 percent in the spring to 61 percent this summer, with majorities across party lines, while broader attitudes toward AI remained largely unchanged. The ad focuses on those immediate concerns: what gets built nearby and who pays for it.

The issue is also appearing in Republican campaign ads. In New York’s 17th District, Republican Representative Mike Lawler is attacking Democrat Cait Conley over her ties to AI companies and comments about data centers; though her campaign says she supports a moratorium. The two races show candidates from both parties presenting themselves as protection against the industry’s local costs.

The Benson ad frames data centers as a rural concern, filling the screen with farmland, barns, and tractors while portraying James as a suited, glad-handing insider. Benson appears in casual clothes and walks toward the camera, delivering her promises in direct, matter-of-fact language that completes the visual contrast.

Watch the spot here, and come back next Tuesday for Ad Watch: another campaign ad, its intended audience, and what it reveals about our politics.

North Carolina has an open Senate seat this year — Republican Thom Tillis is retiring — and it’s one of four Republican-held seats Democrats need if they’re going to take the chamber.

Former Governor Roy Cooper has been comfortably ahead in polling the entire race. An Elon University poll released last week had Cooper at 49% and Republican Michael Whatley at 38% among likely voters, with 8% undecided. That’s a wider margin than most other recent surveys, but the 49% is roughly where other polls have put him.

One of the more interesting numbers: Only 72% of North Carolinians who voted for Trump in 2024 currently say they’ll vote for Whatley. Ten percent of them say they’ll vote for Cooper, and the rest are undecided, planning to stay home, or looking at a third-party candidate. Cooper, meanwhile, is holding 93% of Harris voters.

Some of those undecided Trump voters will come home to Whatley by November. But a Republican in North Carolina needs nearly all of them.

Our Russell Payne talked to Jason Husser, who runs the Elon poll, about why he thinks this lead is different from the ones North Carolina Democrats have blown before — and why Whatley might not have the money to change it.

To find out what Husser says makes Cooper harder to define than past Democratic candidates there, read Russell’s full story at The Caucus.

Inflation and the cost of living were the top issue in the North Carolina poll I mentioned above — 86% of registered voters called them highly important, ahead of the economy generally and health care. Ohio’s Democratic Senate candidate is running as though that’s true everywhere.

Sherrod Brown lost his Senate seat in 2024 to Republican Bernie Moreno. He’s running this year for the other one: the spot JD Vance gave up to become vice president, which Ohio Governor Mike DeWine filled by appointing Republican Jon Husted. It’s a special election, so whoever wins serves only the last two years of Vance’s term and runs again in 2028.

Brown spent three terms in the Senate focused on labor and health care, and he’s still campaigning on both. But what he’s leading with is the electric bill.

“Our utility bills are higher than ever because no one is holding the utility companies accountable,” Brown wrote on Facebook earlier this month. “It’s time we cap how much these companies can increase electricity rates and lower costs for working families.”

A cap on rate increases is an unusually specific policy for a Senate campaign, and it targets a bill most people see monthly whether or not they’re following the race.

Surina Venkat has what Brown is saying on the trail about who he holds responsible for those increases, and it isn’t only the utility companies. Her full story is at The Caucus.

— The Supreme Court rejected the Trump administration’s bid to impose new mail-in voting rules for the midterms, leaving in place a judge’s ruling that the Postal Service has no authority over how states run their elections. (NPR)

— State Democratic parties launched a new effort Monday to recruit and train volunteers to monitor polling places and counter voter intimidation. The New Battlefield Project is preparing for possible federal interference in November’s voting. (AP)

— Senate Republicans need Democratic votes today to advance their cryptocurrency bill. They’ve added restrictions on public officials’ crypto businesses, but whether those restrictions adequately cover President Donald Trump remains a sticking point. (Reuters)

— Delaware votes today, with progressive challengers taking on Democratic legislators who backed last year’s law limiting shareholder lawsuits against corporate leaders. Corporate law firms have helped finance the incumbents’ defense. (Bolts)

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