Over the past week, Senate races have steadily drifted towards Democrats, with House ratings expecting a comfortable majority of about 230-seats. In the battle for the Senate, however, the path to the majority might not look exactly as expected.
On the generic ballot, the Democrats' advantage has remained steady at about 8 points, with some polls still finding them with double-digit leads. So, with House polling heavily favoring Democrats, the question of whether, and what sort, of Senate majority Democrats might win has become increasingly pertinent.
In the final month of the midterm campaigns, it's becoming increasingly likely, in the view of top forecasters, that Democrats will retake the Senate. Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia, for example, moved two Senate races towards Democrats over the past week and now gives Democrats the edge to hold 49 Senate seats after the midterms, and Republicans the edge in 47, with four tossups.
Likewise, Race to the WH projects that Democrats will hold either 52 or 53 seats after the midterms, while the GOP are projected to hold 46. The Cook Political report is slightly more bearish on Democrats, but still sees the races in five reliably Republican states (Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas) as tossups.
At the same time, there are also signs that the GOP is concerned about how they’re set to perform in the midterm elections, with the party dedicating new resources to Kansas and South Carolina, $14 million and $5 million respectively. Both of these states are considered safe Republican seats, even in an unfavorable midterm environment. This dedication of resources also comes at the expense of spending in states that were expected to be part of the Senate battleground this year, but which have become less competitive for the Republicans, like North Carolina.
Miles Coleman, the associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, explained to The Caucus their decision to shift their ratings in two key Senate races, Alaska and South Carolina, towards Democrats.
In Alaska, Coleman said, the cost of living crisis is felt even more acutely than in the mainland United States, which, when combined with top-four ballot dynamics and former Rep. Mary Peltola’s (D-AK) performance in the past, makes for a favorable environment for Democrats.
“They're really feeling it right now. And what we've been told is on the ground, the Peltola campaign seems to have more of a presence. I would kind of point out that, yes, she lost in 2024, but it was by about 2 points in a pretty good year for Republicans,” Coleman said.
While there has been comparatively little polling done in Alaska, the most recent survey there, by Alaska Survey Research, found Peltola with a 2 point lead. She leads in the Real Clear Politics polling average by 1.2 points.
If Peltola is the only Democrat who could win in the Alaska Senate race, then Darlene Graham, the GOP nominee for Senate and the sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), might be the only Republican who could lose in South Carolina.
Though Coleman cautioned that the state still advantages Republicans, and that he expects Graham to win, he also questioned whether Graham’s connection with her brother was really an electoral boon for her. Combined with some viral debate flubs, there are questions percolating about her quality as a candidate.
“I get that she's Lindsey Graham's sister and that there's a certain amount of sympathy that probably comes with that, but you know, Lindsey Graham himself was not really an electoral powerhouse in South Carolina,” Coleman said. “He'd perform like you would expect a generic Republican to perform in South Carolina.”
In the polls, however, there are still some sticking points for Democrats. The Maine Senate race is still looking competitive. Though the most recent survey, a Marist poll, found former State Senator Troy Jackson up by 4 points, the previous two surveys both found the race tied.
Coleman said that, though the Crystal Ball always tries to move races out of the “tossup” category before the election, he expects that Maine will be one of the last to shift, alongside other key battlegrounds like Texas, Ohio, and even Iowa.
(Photo: Dr. Annie Andrews, via Annie Andrews, MD Facebook)