Over the past week, a yawning gap has opened up between Democrats and Republicans in House polling, even as some Senate races remain persistently close for Democrats.
In the past couple of weeks, Democrats have surged ahead in generic ballot polling, opening up a wider lead over Republicans than has been previously seen in the 2026 cycle. In the Real Clear Politics average of polls, Democrats lead Republicans 48% to 42% on September 11, and now lead 51% to 42%.
The trend in polling has largely been driven by an increase in support for Democrats in recent days, and a few surveys have even found double- digit leads for Democrats, like a recent Emerson College survey that had Democrats ahead by 11 points in the generic ballot. For comparison, at this stage in the 2018 midterms, Democrats lead on the generic ballot by about 8 points, per Real Clear Politic’s’ average.
At the same time, Republicans are battling historically low approval ratings for President Donald Trump, with the Real Clear Politics average having the president underwater by 21 points, with 60% disapproving and 39% approving of his performance. Some surveys have seen Trump's approval sink even lower, with a recent CNN survey seeing Trump’s approval at just a 33%.
Logan Phillips, the founder of Race to the WH, an election forecaster, told The Caucus that he traces the deterioration of Republicans in the polls back to mid-July, when Trump rolled out a new iteration of his tariff regime, noting too that persistently high gas prices have not helped Republicans in the polls. Because of these trends, Phillips’s model currently gives Democrats an 84% chance of winning the House, with an average 232 seats for the Democrats (218 is enough to claim the majority).
Even as it looks like a potential Democratic wave is about to wash over the House, Phillips pointed out a few races in the Senate that are looking even more competitive as election day approaches.
Most of this trend has been in Democrats favor, with states like Kansas and Iowa looking increasingly close as election day approaches. In Kansas, what limited polling exists suggests a close race, with a recent survey from Emerson College even showing the Democrat, Adam Hamilton, leading there.
Likewise, Iowa polling from Marist released over the past week found the Democrat there, Josh Turek, leading his Republican opponent Ashley Hinson by 8 points. While neither of these races are expected to go to Democrats by most analysts, the trend towards the party even in these states is illustrative of a shifting battleground in the Senate map.
This is further demonstrated by reports that suggest Republicans are weighing whether or not to continue dedicating resources to Senate races in Georgia and North Carolina, two states that were previously seen as the front lines in the battle for the Senate, but which are now seen as increasingly likely to go for Democrats in November. Phillips noted, however, that there are other Senate competitions where Republicans have been getting some favorable signs from the polls.
“There's been some really close polling in Minnesota and Maine, so Susan Collins, you would think, would be in a much worse position compared to where she was, like let's say a few months ago. Given that the national environment has gotten so much worse for Republicans, her race has barely budged,” Phillips said.
In Maine, for example, the most recent New York Times and Siena College survey has Sen. Sen Susan Collins leading her opponent, state Senator Troy Jackson by 3 points. Likewise in Minnesota, the most recent KSTP and SurveyUSA poll has Lt. Gov. Peggy Flannagan and journalist Michele Tafoya tied in the Senate race.
In Maine in particular, Collins is running against both her Democratic opponent and trends in the state, which has drifted towards Democrats in recent years. Phillips compared her bid to the final Senate run of former Sen. Joe Manchin (I-W.V.), who lost his reelection campaign in West Virginia in 2024, long after Republicans began to dominate politics in the state.
(Photo: Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, via Hakeem Jeffries Facebook)