WEDNESDAY EDITION
OCT 14 / 20 DAYS OUT
1. LEADING OFF
Good morning. Twenty days out. That's less than three weeks remaining for what may be the most important midterm election in modern U.S. history.
On Tuesday, the biggest super PAC working to keep the House in Republican hands cut off two of its own.
The Congressional Leadership Fund and groups aligned with President Donald Trump stopped spending for Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (NJ-07) and Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA-01). As The New York Times reported, it's the first time this cycle national Republican groups have walked away from a sitting member.
CLF also gave up on beating two Democrats, Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet (MI-08) and Rep. Greg Landsman (OH-01). All told, it's moving about $10 million out of those four districts and into 16 others.
Campaigns will tell you every race is winnable. Their money won't.
Democrats moved money this week, too. Senate Majority PAC, the main super PAC for Senate Democrats, pulled out of North Carolina, where former Gov. Roy Cooper sits atop our Senate rankings, and sent $7 million to Ohio and $2.5 million to Iowa.
That's money leaving a race Democrats lead for races they're trying to win. CLF's move starts with conceding two seats Republicans already hold.
If you have to have a money problem, Democrats have the better one.
Below, you'll find Jake Rakov's exclusive interview with Gina Hinojosa, who wants to send every Texas household $1,500; our Senate rankings, where Republicans just put $5 million into South Carolina; and Russell Payne on the House nominee who won his primary with 29 percent of the vote.
— Elias Isquith
2. A $1,500 CHECK FOR EVERY TEXAS HOUSEHOLD
Republican Governor Greg Abbott wants a fourth term. Democrat Gina Hinojosa, a state representative who got her start on a school board, has other plans.
In an exclusive interview with our Jake Rakov, Hinojosa lays out her first day: freeze residential utility rates, pause the state gas tax and fire the head of the Texas Education Agency.
She also wants lawmakers to mail every household $1,500 out of the state's Rainy Day Fund. She calls it the Greg Abbott Corruption Refund. Subtle, it is not.
And she tells a story about a childhood drive back across the border that sums up her whole campaign.
To find out what her father told her on the way home from Matamoros, read Jake Rakov's full interview at The Caucus.
3. SOUTH CAROLINA MAKES THE LIST
Our Senate rankings run to nine this week. South Carolina is new, after the GOP's Senate Leadership Fund pledged $5 million to protect appointed Senator Darline Graham against Democrat Annie Andrews.
That's the same group that quit spending in North Carolina at the start of the month.
The top eight held their spots, five of them Toss Ups. And there's one competitive seat we left off on purpose, for a reason that has nothing to do with how close it is.
| CAUCUS+ SENATE TOP 9 · WEEK 5 · 3 WEEKS OUT | ||
1 | North Carolina Roy Cooper vs. Michael Whatley · open | D Advantage |
2 | Alaska Mary Peltola vs. Dan Sullivan | Toss up |
3 | Maine Troy Jackson vs. Susan Collins | Toss up |
4 | Ohio Sherrod Brown vs. Jon Husted · special | Toss up |
5 | Texas James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton | Toss up |
6 | Iowa Josh Turek vs. Ashley Hinson · open | Toss up |
7 | Kansas Adam Hamilton vs. Roger Marshall | R Advantage |
8 | Florida Angie Nixon vs. Ashley Moody · special | Expected R |
9 NEW | South Carolina Annie Andrews vs. Darline Graham · appointed | Expected R |
| South Carolina joins the list. No other seat moved. | ||
To find out which race we kept off the list, and why, read the full rankings at The Caucus.
4. NOMINATED WITH 29 PERCENT
In a safe seat, the primary is the real election. So what happens when nobody wins it with a majority?
As our Russell Payne reports, a new study from FairVote, an election reform group, finds around 126 candidates on track to win House or statewide races this year after taking their primaries with a plurality: more votes than anyone else, but less than half.
That's the most since FairVote started counting in 2018. In one Illinois district, the nominee got 29 percent. FairVote says two things drove the jump.
To learn how this year's redistricting fights made the problem worse, read Russell Payne's full story at The Caucus.
5. 2028 WATCH
This week's 2028 coverage keeps circling the same question: not just who can win, but where.
Arizona Senators Mark Kelly and Ruben Gallego are both weighing runs, each pitching his record of winning a purple border state, which puts them on course to chase the same donors and endorsements.
Pete Buttigieg has campaigned for more Democrats in more places than most of his rivals this year, partly because, having passed on races in Michigan, he doesn't have a job.
Close Senate races in Nebraska, Ohio, Texas, Iowa and Kansas have some Democrats eyeing a bigger 2028 map.
6. IN THE NEWS
A new Gallup survey finds 43 percent of Americans view Democrats favorably and 35 percent view Republicans favorably, with Democrats holding a solid edge among independents. (Semafor)
A WRAL/WSOC poll of likely voters has Roy Cooper leading Republican Michael Whatley 54 percent to 40 percent in North Carolina's Senate race. (WRAL)
Republican Rick Jackson skipped Monday's Georgia governor's debate, leaving Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms to open beside an empty lectern and accuse him of hiding behind his billions. (Atlanta Journal-Constitution)
An Ohio mental health facility publicly denied ever treating James Talarico after Republican allies of Ken Paxton spread a false rumor that the Texas Senate candidate had been a patient there. (New York Times)
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