Good morning. Forty-three days out.

One number to carry through today’s issue: $14 million. That’s what Republican groups spent on television in Ohio last week. Not this cycle — last week, in one state.

Now hold that against what the Democratic candidate in Nevada’s 2nd District has raised for her entire campaign: $257,000 (as of the last report in June). 

Republicans are concentrating enormous sums on a short list of races. Democrats are doing the opposite — spreading a much smaller pile across a map that keeps getting wider, into seats the party wrote off years ago.

Below, a Methodist pastor is two points up in a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1930, a Democrat is advertising in a Nevada district where the party almost never competes, and how Flock has managed to bring both sides together.

— Elias Isquith

Kansas hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1930. A poll released Thursday has Adam Hamilton, a Methodist pastor who calls himself a centrist, up two points — with 45 percent against Republican Sen. Roger Marshall’s 43.

A gentle reminder: One poll, one firm, two points. Not a trend. But still.

Beneath the horserace, the real story is what Hamilton is running on: killing the tariffs, reversing the Medicaid cuts, tax credits for first-time homebuyers. He’s also told CNN that Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) should step aside.

To find out how Hamilton is pitching himself to voters who backed Trump three times, read Alex Rifaat’s full story at The Caucus.

Teresa Benitez-Thompson just bought television time in a district Republicans won by 19 points. She’s the first Democrat to advertise in Nevada’s 2nd District in longer than anyone who covers Nevada politics can remember. 

Republican David Flippo has raised $2.3 million to her $257,000. We rate the seat Expected R. She made the buy anyway.

It’s savvier than it may sound: The seat is open because GOP Rep. Mark Amodei is retiring, and he’s refusing to endorse Flippo, who beat his preferred successor in the primary.

To find out what a Democrat says to voters who haven’t heard the party seriously ask for their vote in years, read Russell Payne’s full story at The Caucus.

Flock cameras photograph and log every car that passes them, not only the ones police are looking for. More than 350 cities, counties, and sheriff’s departments have canceled, suspended, or declined to renew their contracts.

The politics here are in flux. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro wants the cameras banned; so does Pennsylvania Treasurer Stacy Garrity, the Republican running against him. 

Meanwhile, both candidates for governor in Wisconsin have gone after them, as have Democrat William Lawrence and Republican Rep. Tom Barrett, who are running against each other in Michigan’s 7th District. 

Flock says its technology helps police solve serious crimes and find missing people. But even though the privacy researchers Surina Venkat interviewed support the bans, they’re worried they’re not enough.

To find out how the opposition got this big this fast, read Surina Venkat’s full story at The Caucus.

— A new NBC News poll puts President Donald Trump’s approval at 41 percent among registered voters, a second-term low, with 55 percent saying his policies have hurt the economy — though the Democratic edge on control of Congress, 50 to 45, is well short of the 12 points the party held at this point in 2018. (NBC News)

— Republican groups spent roughly $14 million on Ohio advertising in a single week to shore up Senator Jon Husted against Sherrod Brown, in a race the tracking firm AdImpact now puts at $298 million in total ad spending, more than any other Senate contest this cycle. (The Detroit News)

— Trump-aligned super PACs have committed about $150 million across battleground races, including more than $94 million in September reservations behind Republican Ken Paxton in Texas, against roughly $20 million supporting Democrat James Talarico. (NPR)

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