Happy Friday Caucus community. We are officially less than 40 days from the election. And if you can believe it, there are already votes being cast in some states.

This week also saw the first day of astronomical fall, and while for most of the country the temperatures aren’t changing much, the political map is looking less and less red with each day. 

A flurry of polls that came out this week show the House map for Democrats getting only getting bigger. On Mondays we release the biggest movers in our House rankings, and this week saw major jumps in races across Michigan, New Jersey, Kentucky, and Colorado. 

Polling and rankings aside, it was a pretty sour week for Republicans. Longstanding deep-red states like Kansas, Ohio, and even Alaska are suddenly in play for Democrats, with the DCCC backing Independent candidate Bill Hill, who gave an exclusive Q&A to The Caucus this week. 

Most consultants will tell you to ignore polling when you’re losing. However that lesson does not seem to be the case for right-wing groups who are pouring a deluge of money into states to help beleaguered Republican candidates. They’ve committed to nine-figure ad buys in the Texas and Ohio Senate races. 

While many Democratic candidates are breaking campaign fundraising records and out-raising their Republican opponents, it does make you wonder if the Democratic establishment and donor class will (or can) respond in kind. 

This may be the Democrats best chance in a generation to flip states like Texas. But the low fundraising and spending numbers from the DSCC and others so far feels like they’re gonna bring a butter knife to a shoot out.

October is a long month in politics and money moves quickly if people want it to. Next week is the end of the last fundraising quarter before Election Day. It’s the last big chance for campaigns to prove they’re legit and can stay in the fight until November 3rd. We’ll see who has the energy to stick it out and who may be relying on friends in high places in the last month of the cycle.

— Jake Rakov, Co-Founder, The Caucus

Each week until Election Day, The Caucus ranks the top 25 House seats currently held by Republicans that Democrats are most likely to win. These rankings are meant to be a snapshot in time, not a prediction, until we reach our final edition of the year the Monday before the election.

Here’s this week’s Top 10:

To see all 25 and how far each one moved, read the full rankings at The Caucus.

— Ten House Democrats put forward a bill to pause the development of advanced AI and outright ban superintelligence (a technology that doesn’t exist yet) until there’s a system in place to ensure safety. It’s Rep. Greg Casar’s (D-TX) bill, with big names including Reps. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (D-NY) and Ro Khanna (D-CA) joining him. (POLITICO)

— The Iran war might be unpopular across the country, but Senate Republicans decided to continue backing the President by stopping Democrats’ symbolic attempt to push for an end to the conflict. GOP candidates for Senate have started publicly calling for an end to the war as it drags down their poll numbers. (NPR)

— Donors in Sen. Bernie Sanders’ network gave $9.1 million to the 21 candidates he endorsed through July 31, the most of any progressive leader, ahead of Rep. Ro Khanna’s $3.4 million across 15 candidates and Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s $2.7 million across 11, according to a Washington Sun analysis. (The Washington Sun)

We’re 100% independent and reader supported. The more members we have, the more coverage we can provide. Become a founding member of The Caucus today.

We’re your go-to source for what’s actually happening inside the Democratic Party. We don’t just write about the news of the day, we tell you what will matter tomorrow. We want to hire more reporters to cover campaigns, well-sourced journalists in Washington to write about what’s happening on the Hill, and analysts to break down all of the races you care about. But we need your help to do it.

Please consider becoming a founding member today. It’s just $10/month or $90 for a year.