Good morning. Forty-one days out.

Here’s a way to read everything below: the people working to elect Democrats don’t all share the party’s name, and the ones who do don’t necessarily share all of its priorities. (Such is life when your party is a broad coalition!)

In Alaska, for example, the Democratic front-runner for the state’s only House seat, Matt Schultz, dropped out in July and endorsed independent Bill Hill. The House Democrats’ campaign arm has since added Hill to its Red to Blue list of priority challengers. You can find out more about our exclusive interview with Hill below.

In California, meanwhile, the state Democratic Party’s executive board endorsed a billionaire tax with 61.7 percent of the vote, just over the 60 percent it needed; but Democratic California Governor Gavin Newsom opposes it.

Flipping seats takes alliances like these. What the winners could do with power depends on whether those alliances hold.

Democrats in California who agree billionaires should pay more are still split on this billionaire tax: Newsom wants a national version instead, and the San Francisco Democratic Party opposes the measure its state party endorsed.

Below, you’ll find a conversation with the independent House Democrats want in Alaska’s only House seat, why California’s billionaire tax may be in trouble even with the state Democratic Party behind it, and the Iowa poll that moved our Senate rankings.

— Elias Isquith

Bill Hill is a commercial fisherman and former school superintendent running as an independent against Republican Rep. Nick Begich for Alaska’s only House seat.

In an exclusive interview with The Caucus, he never says which party he’d side with. “Not once has someone asked me about my party registration,” he told us.

In a state Trump won by 13 points, that may be the smartest thing a candidate backed by Democrats can say.

What he does talk about is who he thinks is taking advantage of Alaskans. To find out who’s on that list, and why Hill says he won’t sell “our lands off” to them, read our full exclusive interview at The Caucus.

Surina Venkat has new numbers on Proposition 40, California’s proposed one-time tax of up to 5 percent on residents worth more than $1 billion.

In a UC Berkeley Citrin Center/Politico poll released Monday, 45 percent of voters backed it and 43 percent opposed it. When the same pollsters asked in February, it led 50 to 28.

Ballot measures in California need a simple majority to pass. Since February, opposition has grown by 15 points while support fell by 5.

On paper, a tax that falls on roughly 200 people should be an easy sell. The hard part is who’s on the other side.

Besides Google co-founder Sergey Brin and his fellow billionaires, the no side includes California Governor Gavin Newsom, who says he wants a national billionaire tax instead, and the San Francisco Democratic Party. When plenty of Democrats are telling voters “not this way,” a lot of voters end up saying no.

To find out what six Nobel Prize–winning economists think a yes vote in California would lead to, read Surina’s full story at The Caucus.

Alaska passes Maine and Iowa passes Texas in this week’s Senate rankings. All four remain Toss Ups, our rating for races where the evidence doesn’t point to a clear favorite.

Despite what it may look like, Maine and Texas didn’t get worse for Democrats. They slipped simply because other races moved past them, and a numbered list can make those two things look alike. If you’re a Democrat, you’d call that a “good problem.”

Iowa’s move comes with a number. A Marist poll taken Sept. 17 to 20 had Democrat Josh Turek at 50 percent to Republican Ashley Hinson’s 42 percent among registered voters.

That means everyone on the voter rolls, not just the people likely to turn out. At 50 percent, Turek wouldn’t need any of the poll’s undecided voters to win. Again, we’re talking about Iowa here. Interesting times.

The rest of the list holds.

North Carolina is still the only Republican-held seat we rate D Advantage. Florida and Kansas remain Expected R, one step outside our Competitive Tier, even with good news for Democrats in both.

To find out why Alaska’s Republican senator is sharing the ballot with a second Dan Sullivan, read the full Senate rankings at The Caucus.

— Democratic Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, who says he’ll decide on 2028 after November, has campaigned in 15 states since last year to help Democrats, often in Republican territory. Next month he goes to Michigan — and South Carolina. (The Washington Sun)

— Democratic Illinois Governor JB Pritzker says he has lost 80 pounds with help from a GLP-1 he started after a Type 2 diabetes diagnosis. Asked about 2028, he says he’s focused on winning a third term in November. Whatever you say, Mr. Governor! (NPR Illinois)

— “There’s an argument that some make that this is a very unique political window and, oftentimes in politics, you do only get one shot.” — Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (NYT)

— House Democrats’ campaign arm is spending nearly $8 million on TV ads across 26 districts this week, with new spots in 14 of them. (Punchbowl News)

— Retiring Democratic Rep. Jared Golden of Maine’s 2nd District endorsed Republican Rep. Mike Lawler in New York’s 17th District, citing Lawler’s support for a bill extending a pause on federal lobster regulations until 2035. (Roll Call)

— Republican party committees entered September with about $103 million more cash than their Democratic counterparts, but the Senate is the exception: the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee had $37.6 million to the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s $18.7 million. (CNBC)

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