New Mexico’s spot as the fourth state in the new Democratic presidential primary calendar is already shaking up the dynamic ahead of the 2028 election. Democrats there expect its presence to push issues and topics that have previously taken a back seat in presidential primaries to the fore.
In the new Democratic calendar, New Mexico is slated to go fourth, holding its primary on February 15, 2028, following South Carolina, Nevada, and New Hampshire, and going before Michigan and Virginia.
Of these early primary states, New Mexico stands out for several reasons, including the state’s significant Native American and Latino populations, its status as a state with one of the highest poverty levels in the country, and the state’s relationship with extractive industry.
Michelle Mayorga, a Democratic strategist and a partner at GBAO, a political and public opinion firm, told The Caucus that she expects the state’s Native American and Latino populations to play a key role in the New Mexico primary, while noting that there is significant diversity within these groups.
“We have a very large native population, but we also have a very diverse native population. So we have 19 pueblos, two Apache tribes and the Navajo Nation, and the Navajo Nation is the largest tribe in America. But there's just a lot of diversity within that,” Mayorga said. “Within the Latino community, we have Latinos who trace their families back 14 generations and we’re also a border state. We have Latino families who are new to this country. Even within our diversity there is a lot of diversity.”
Mayorga said that because of the diversity in New Mexico’s minority population, many of the issues that affect these groups are also fairly specific to their individual situations. However, she would expect topics like water rights to feature much more prominently than they have in previous presidential primaries. She also noted that New Mexico has been more supportive of women running for office compared to much of the country.
“We've elected the first Latina Republican governor and the first Latina Democratic governor in the United States. We have the most female legislature in America for a time. We had a fully female congressional delegation, and so I just think also our track record of electing, you know, really dynamic women and women of color is something that sort of sets us apart from the other early states. We're about to elect the first Native American woman governor,” Mayorga said.
Mayorga also highlighted the state’s position as a center for extractive industries, such as mining, and particularly the oil and gas industries – New Mexico is the second largest oil producing state in the country. Mayorga said she expects candidates to speak more to the potential benefits of these sectors, as well as the need to ensure that their operations actually benefit the people of the state, rather than just shareholders.
Dede Felman, a former New Mexico state senator, also highlighted the oil and gas industry as a potential key economic topic in the New Mexico presidential primary, while also saying that she expects welfare programs like SNAP and Medicaid to feature more prominently in the primary than they have in recent cycles.
“New Mexico has the highest proportion of its population on Medicaid compared to any other state. We also have a very high percentage of people who receive SNAP benefits, and so those cuts that came with the so-called Big Beautiful Bill have hit New Mexico very hard,” Feldman said.
Feldman said she expects candidates to be forced to adopt a Rooseveltian approach to economic issues noting, “a nation's greatness is judged by how we treat the poor.”
“Those basic values will come to the fore right away, I think. Candidates that stand up for poor people and minority people as well will I think be heard much more clearly here in New Mexico,” Feldman said.
Santiago Mayer, the founder of Voters of tomorrow, a youth organizing group, echoed Feldman’s sentiments in an interview with The Caucus and said that he expects economic issues, especially around the cost of housing and healthcare, to be especially prevalent with younger voters in New Mexico and in the 2028 primary in general. New Mexico, Mayer said, will probably be the early state that gives candidates and analysts the best read on how young voters are thinking in 2028.
“We had over 37,000 young people engaged there in 2024, and the issues that they kept repeating over to us are still the defining issues in the gubernatorial campaign there right now, and will still be determining factors in how the primary plays out in 2028,” Mayer said. “We have seen young people who are very focused on the cost of healthcare, the cost of housing, the care, the cost of utilities. Latinos are the youngest population. There is a very large Latino population there. New Mexico is one of the states where young people will have an outsized impact.”
(Photo: Rep. Gabe Vasquez, Sec. Deb Haaland and Sec. Pete Buttigieg, via Deb Haaland for NM Facebook)