Good morning. Twenty-one days out.

Before anything else: Federal agents searched the Washington-area home of Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar (MN-05) yesterday morning.

The Justice Department says Homeland Security Investigations agents carried out a judge-approved search warrant as part of an ongoing criminal investigation. News reports say the investigation centers on Omar's immigration paperwork, which her father did many years ago.

For a sense of how unusual this is, The New York Times notes that the search came within 60 days of an election, a window in which the Justice Department has historically held off on steps like this against candidates.

But you don't need to be a policy wonk to know Trump's long history of racist invective toward Omar. And you don't need to be a Constitutional scholar to understand that this kind of thing used to be unthinkable for a reason.

That said, on to the races. 

Our ratings give Democrats 47 Senate seats, exactly what they hold now, with six toss ups still open. They need 51, so they have to win four of those six.

That's the math. But some of this week's most interesting moves are in races that aren't toss ups at all. A seat like South Carolina's can cost Republicans without Democrats winning it. All it takes is Republicans feeling they have to defend it. Every dollar spent there is a dollar that doesn't go to the six races that decide the Senate.

Below, you'll find the New Hampshire Senate race that just tipped toward Democrats, why one Republican candidate's $108 million hasn't bought him a lead, the South Carolina Democrat whose new ad starts in a swamp, and the Alabama party chair inviting Trump voters into the Democratic tent.

— Elias Isquith

Every week, we check every race on our board to make sure the rating still matches what we're seeing. This week we moved nine, and all nine went toward Democrats. That's two weeks in a row with nothing moving toward Republicans.

The five House moves ran with yesterday’s Top 25. The four new ones are statewide.

The biggest is New Hampshire's Senate race, which went from Toss Up to D Advantage. The seat is open because Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen is retiring. Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas (NH-01) had raised $15.4 million through August 19. Republican John Sununu had raised $4.2 million.

Nebraska's Senate race moved from Expected R to R Advantage. Independent Dan Osborn is running again, this time against Republican Senator Pete Ricketts. The state Democratic Party endorsed Osborn instead of nominating its own candidate. Two years ago he got 46.5 percent against Republican Senator Deb Fischer.

To find out who's behind the more than $15 million already spent in Nebraska, read the full ratings at The Caucus.

South Carolina's Senate race also moved this week, from Safe R to Expected R. This ad shows how Democrat Annie Andrews is trying to close the rest of the gap.

To begin the ad, Andrews is standing in an actual swamp. 

"We know about swamps in South Carolina," she says. But "Trump was right," she says, when he called Washington, D.C., the biggest swamp of them all. 

And this election, she alleges, Republican Senator Darline Graham, appointed after her brother, Senator Lindsey Graham, died in July, is the swamp's choice.

Praising Trump may seem like an odd move for a Democrat, but remember: this is South Carolina, which Trump won in 2024 by 18 points. 

That means that even though Trump is unpopular right now, Andrews can't win in South Carolina by running against him. Her solution? Borrow his line and redirect it at the "swamp" she says picked Graham, which, hopefully, allows her to appeal to conservative voters without asking them to admit they were wrong to believe Trump in the first place.

For more on the race, and to find out what Senate Majority Leader John Thune said when he came to campaign for Graham, read the full ratings at The Caucus.

Alabama Democrats don't hold a single statewide office, and they lost the legislature back in 2010. 

In August, the party picked a chair, State Senate Minority Leader Bobby Singleton, who says he's unwilling to accept the last 16 years of Democratic Party powerlessness as the new normal in Alabama politics.

As our Surina Venkat reports, Singleton has been on the road ever since, telling any Republican who says they're through with Trump that there's room for them in the Democratic tent.

It's a long shot. But Singleton says he's meeting voters like this at his rallies, and that he plans to go find more.

To learn what Singleton means when he asks Alabama Democrats for "sweat equity," read Surina Venkat's full story at The Caucus.

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